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Eric Czuleger
Eric Czuleger
Author, Journalist, RPCV Graduate of #Oxford and #RAND School of Public Policy. Former Ambassador.

Articles

Earthquakes, Summits, Street Unrest, Shadow Wars, and the Arctic’s Influence Game

Earthquakes, Summits, Street Unrest, Shadow Wars, and the Arctic’s Influence Game

From Kabul to Copenhagen, the world is shifting in ways that demand attention. A catastrophic earthquake in Afghanistan leaves thousands dead as aid struggles to reach survivors. China and Russia use a Beijing summit to showcase their deepening alliance. Riots across Indonesia highlight fragile democratic legitimacy in Southeast Asia’s largest state. Somalia sees escalated international counter-terror operations against al-Shabaab. And Denmark confronts Washington over covert U.S. influence efforts in Greenland—revealing how even Arctic politics are becoming a flashpoint.

Sep 2, 2025
West Africa Burns, Serbia Clashes, Alliances Tested from Washington to the Pacific

West Africa Burns, Serbia Clashes, Alliances Tested from Washington to the Pacific

This week’s risk map centers on the Sahel’s hardening stance toward international monitors and a widening arc of violence that now brushes the West African coast, Israel’s mass anti-war protests amid talk of a ceasefire framework, Serbia’s escalating unrest, Europe’s careful positioning after the Trump–Zelensky meetings in Washington, and the Pacific Islands Forum’s members-only summit that sidelines outside powers. Each front carries implications for aid access, sanctions calculus, alliance cohesion, and market sentiment.

Aug 19, 2025
James Bond is Dead

James Bond is Dead

In the digital age, intelligence gathering has shifted from shadowy back alleys to public data streams. From the accidental live-tweeting of the Osama bin Laden raid to fitness apps revealing the locations of secret military bases, open-source intelligence (OSINT) and prediction markets are transforming espionage. Today, crucial information isn’t just in the hands of elite spies — it’s flowing through Telegram channels, social media posts, and crowd-driven platforms that can outpace classified briefings. This deep dive explores how the rise of unorthodox intelligence methods is reshaping global security and what it means for governments, corporations, and everyday sleuths.

Aug 14, 2025
Mercenaries, Trade Routes, and Scuttled Ships

Mercenaries, Trade Routes, and Scuttled Ships

Peace and infrastructure in the Southern Caucasus and a tense U.S.–Russia meeting in Alaska. South American mercenaries in Sudan and a rare Chinese naval mishap in the South China Sea, this week’s developments show power being projected through infrastructure, summitry, and sheer presence on the water. Meanwhile, the Horn of Africa tries to push back insurgents with foreign soldiers and international support.

Aug 12, 2025
Data Centers: Frontline Infrastructure

Data Centers: Frontline Infrastructure

Data centers are the new frontline for geo-strategic competition. As AI eats electricity and compute demand surges, countries are locking down territory, energy, and incentives to host the infrastructure of intelligence. The result is a global arms race of steel, silicon, and sovereign control. What’s being built now will determine who dominates a digital future.

Aug 7, 2025
New Tariffs, Old Wars, and Rare Earths

New Tariffs, Old Wars, and Rare Earths

We're tracking five under-the-radar geopolitical moves reshaping global power structures. From China’s renewed restrictions on rare-earth magnet exports—choking vital supply chains for EVs and defense tech—to Israel’s escalating raids inside Syria’s fragile southern corridor the world is changing. We also cover the growing EU fracture over Palestinian recognition, with Malta stepping forward and Estonia pushing back, revealing deeper divisions in European diplomacy. On the African front, Djibouti formalizes its military footprint in Somalia. Finally, the U.S. unleashes sweeping tariffs on 68 countries, with Brazil and India facing the hardest hits.

Aug 5, 2025
The New Artillery in Cyber Space

The New Artillery in Cyber Space

Cyberattacks are now a core component of national security threats. State actors and proxies use them to disrupt infrastructure, undermine trust, and pre-position for conflict. This report analyzes how pro-Ukraine cyber units and China-linked groups like Salt Typhoon have escalated operations against critical systems. From grounding Aeroflot flights in Russia to breaching U.S. telecom networks, these attacks are reshaping global defense posture. Supported by data from Check Point Software, IBM, and U.S. intelligence agencies, the piece outlines how digital attacks are replacing kinetic strikes in gray-zone warfare. It also explains what military and civilian leaders must do to defend the homeland.

Jul 30, 2025
Ceasefires and Cyberwar
China

Ceasefires and Cyberwar

Five flashpoints define the emerging shape of conflict in 2025: full-blown war between Thailand and Cambodia, state-backed cyberattacks disrupting nuclear and aviation systems, formal moves to recognize Palestinian statehood, a fragile ceasefire in Congo, and Russia’s expanding military footprint in the Sahel. This week’s Under Report breaks down where power is shifting and why it matters.

Jul 29, 2025
The Next Middle East Flashpoint: Defending the Druze

The Next Middle East Flashpoint: Defending the Druze

Israel’s recent airstrike on Syria’s Ministry of Defense in Damascus marked a dramatic escalation in its efforts to protect the Druze minority of Suwayda, whose strategic location along Iran’s land bridge has turned their homeland into a geopolitical flashpoint. With increasing attacks from Bedouin tribes, Sunni extremists, and regime-linked militias, the Druze now find themselves caught between Israeli defense strategies and Iranian proxy ambitions. As Syria’s new president Ahmad al-Sharaa shifts Damascus closer to the West, his weak hold over tribal forces and the fragmented army threatens to unravel the fragile order. Ceasefires have been short-lived and may be enabling further conflict. With foreign fighters pouring in and multiple sides preparing for escalation, southern Syria is on the brink of wider war. This conflict is a critical indicator of regional instability and a potential trigger point for broader Middle East confrontation.

Jul 24, 2025
This Tiny Syrian Province Could Spark the Next Middle East War

This Tiny Syrian Province Could Spark the Next Middle East War

This week’s Under Report covers five critical flashpoints flying under the radar. In southern Syria, Israeli airstrikes and Druze–Bedouin clashes in Suwayda threaten to destabilize the Golan Heights and expose Iran’s regional supply line. In Japan, the ruling coalition lost its upper-house majority while the nationalist Sanseito party gained ground, reshaping Tokyo’s posture ahead of key U.S. trade talks. In Russia, mass arrests of Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg triggered retaliation from Baku and talk of an international lawsuit over a 2024 airliner downing. The U.S. launched a trade investigation into Brazil’s Pix payment system, signaling possible tariffs. And in Mali, the ruling junta signed nuclear and gold deals with Moscow and welcomed Russia’s new Africa Corps. Each of these stories signals a shift in global power that deserves attention now.

Jul 22, 2025
This Week’s Hidden Fault Lines: From Kurdistan to the Taiwan Strait

This Week’s Hidden Fault Lines: From Kurdistan to the Taiwan Strait

From a symbolic Kurdish disarmament in Iraq to Taiwan’s largest-ever war games, this week’s Under Report spotlights five flashpoints reshaping global power dynamics. Turkey may be nearing peace with the PKK after decades of insurgency, while Ethiopia’s mega-dam on the Nile is now complete—igniting new diplomatic tensions with Egypt and Sudan. In East Asia, Taiwan and China conduct dueling military drills, signaling growing risk in the Taiwan Strait. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine war expands as North Korea pledges troops and Trump issues a 50-day ultimatum. Finally, Somalia’s fragile federal order is tested again as UAE-backed militias battle for coastal control. Each story reveals how local conflicts are now tightly wired into global security architecture.

Jul 15, 2025
Digital Child Soldiers

Digital Child Soldiers

The minds of teenagers are the latest front in the information war. Russian intelligence grooms Ukrainian minors for sabotage operations. Digital cults spread extremist ideologies on TikTok, Discord, and Twitch. Meanwhile AI-driven sextortion and digital blackmail, are opening a new threat matrix against a vulnerable population. In this week’s Under Report deep dive, we trace how screen saturation, algorithmic targeting, and social engineering could turn the youth into weapons.

Jul 11, 2025
Leaked Plans, Laser Wars, and Proxy Power Plays

Leaked Plans, Laser Wars, and Proxy Power Plays

This week, the global order flexes its edges. A leaked Israeli plan outlines a fenced displacement zone for Gaza’s civilians near Egypt. China used a laser weapon on a German plane over the Red Sea, signaling new tactics. Sudan accuses the UAE of backing genocide. Pakistan expands missile capabilities while bowing to Beijing’s pressure. In Burkina Faso, a young military leader grows a Russian-aligned bloc with social media swagger. From containment zones to proxy wars, the world’s periphery is setting the pace. Power is shifting where most aren’t looking. The Under Report is looking.

Jul 9, 2025
How We Got Here: Iran and the West (Part 2)

How We Got Here: Iran and the West (Part 2)

In this second installment of our deep dive on Iran’s history with the West, The Under Report traces the path from Natanz to Tel Aviv. This is how nuclear secrets, proxy militias, and digital sabotage set the stage for the first open Iran–Israel war in 2024. We unpack the rise of Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance,” the Stuxnet cyberattack that changed modern warfare, the collapse of the Iran nuclear deal, and the fallout from the Soleimani strike. As missiles now fly in plain sight, it’s clear: decades of backchannel conflict have entered the daylight.

Jul 3, 2025
Assassinations, Drones, and Cartels

Assassinations, Drones, and Cartels

From Chinese espionage in Europe to Russia’s record-setting drone blitz in Ukraine, rising jihadist statelets in the Sahel, Iran’s royalist resurgence, and Mexican cartels weaponizing drone swarms 21st-century conflict is fragmenting across borders, blurring lines between war, crime, and power.

Jul 1, 2025
Bad Magic: When The World Looks Away

Bad Magic: When The World Looks Away

Global tensions are rising as Russia, China, and famine reshape the geopolitical landscape. A Russian-backed plot to assassinate Zelensky in Poland was foiled, signaling new hybrid warfare on NATO soil. Russia armed its shadow fleet, escorting oil tankers through the English Channel, while China violated Taiwan’s airspace with 27 jets crossing the median line. In the Pacific, the Cook Islands signed a secret deal with China, prompting New Zealand to freeze aid. A UN report warns of famine in 13 countries, risking collapse in Sudan, Mali, and beyond. Covert pressure, not open war, is driving today’s global instability.

Jun 25, 2025
How We Got Here: Iran and the West (Part 1)
Iran

How We Got Here: Iran and the West (Part 1)

The 2025 Iran–Israel conflict didn’t begin with missiles over Tel Aviv—it began with a CIA-backed coup in Tehran. This deep dive traces the path from the 1953 overthrow of Iran’s democratic government to today’s open warfare. Along the way: revolution, proxy militias, nuclear brinkmanship, and cyber sabotage. As Iranian missiles fly and U.S. defenses brace in the Gulf, understanding the roots of this crisis—and the legacy of U.S. intervention in the Middle East—is more urgent than ever.

Jun 19, 2025
Cracking Pandora's Box

Cracking Pandora's Box

The war between Israel and Iran kicked off this week, but the world hasn't stopped spinning yet. Ukraine blocks a Russian advance. Taiwan struggles to keep its digital borders secure. The Houthis target shipping and China pivots hard towards Africa.

Jun 17, 2025
Enter the Neo-State (Part II)

Enter the Neo-State (Part II)

As the traditional nation-state model unravels, a new era of governance is emerging—defined by decentralized law, privatized security, and digital identity. This deep dive explores how Gen Z, blockchain, and billionaire technocrats are reshaping power beyond borders. Learn why statehood-as-a-service, jurisdictional arbitrage, and “meta-citizenship” could redefine what it means to belong in the 21st century.

Jun 12, 2025
✌Atomic Handshakes, Strategic Splits

✌Atomic Handshakes, Strategic Splits

Chokepoints, currencies, and kilotons: this week the world’s “little players” keep tugging at great-power threads. Panama walks away from China’s mega-infrastructure club, Nigeria spins up an on-chain naira, Manila rolls out supersonic ship-killers, Red Sea escorts scramble for hulls, and Turkey does a nuclear high-five with Russia.

Jun 10, 2025
What Comes After Nation-States? (Part I)

What Comes After Nation-States? (Part I)

Countries are made up. They're an ideological technology that helped us stop killing one another during feudalism. But they're starting to wear a bit thin, or at least that's what some people think. Here's part one of my exploration of neo-statecraft.

Jun 5, 2025
Russia's Pearl Harbor?
China

Russia's Pearl Harbor?

Ukraine's "spiderweb" attack takes out a third of Russia's bombers. China and the Philippines ram each other over a critical shoal. Australia asks Beijing why it's building up its military. Starship stumbles and Nigeria bans making it rain money at weddings.

Jun 3, 2025
Ice Breakers 2: Arctic Boogaloo

Ice Breakers 2: Arctic Boogaloo

Climate change is melting polar ice. That means it's time to fight over the Arctic. Russia dominates the ice breaking game. NATO sends soldiers to Norway's frosty north. China declares itself a near-arctic country (it's not). And the US debates between recognizing climate change and being ready to win in the frozen north.

May 29, 2025
I'm Not At War, You're At War
China

I'm Not At War, You're At War

The gray zone is everywhere these days. Europe warns Russia with deep strikes while protecting undersea cables. Kenya complains about Chinese Debt traps. ASEAN comes together to reject Trump's tariffs. And trains keep chugging through Turkmenistan.

May 27, 2025
Got babies? The Fight for Demography

Got babies? The Fight for Demography

Global governments are trying to kick off a new baby boom. From state-sponsored IVF in India to baby bonuses in China and Korea the biggest countries in the world are fighting to keep their populations alive. Meanwhile, surrogacy clinics in war-torn Ukraine remain open through bombing. The reason? Demography is destiny.

May 22, 2025
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