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Hey everyone—
Welcome to The Under Report, your weekly intelligence brief about the stories that move the world without making headlines.

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran will not be included in this issue. This is a world changing event which deserves my focus. I'll dedicate a deep dive to it later this week. In the face of increasing chaos and violence the world only spins forward. At times, this can feel like equal parts blessing and curse.

We remain vigilant monitoring critical events around the world while hoping that Israel and Iran bring hostilities to a close soon.

Share the Under Report if you know someone who would appreciate a perspective from outside the typical headlines. Please engage with my sponsors and scroll to the end for my final thoughts.

— Eric

P.S. I think this reading from the poetry of Rumi is important at the moment.

What happened? At the June 13–16 G7 Summit in Kananaskis, Canada, leaders were forced to scrap much of their agenda which covered Ukraine, China, and AI regulation to deal with the fast-moving Israel-Iran crisis. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and EC President Ursula von der Leyen called for unity in preventing escalation (good thing to say but pretty useless at this juncture). Unfortunately, the West remains divided while the Middle East begins to crumble.

Why it matters. The US holds all the cards here. Israel is using American assets to protect itself and assault Iran. The fight between Iran and Israel represents the greatest threat to tentative stability and global energy markets. Since it cannot go forward without the express permission of the US, the G7 must work to urge a speedy resolution. But, talking about Israel and Iran edges out other important points.

Planned progress on AI alignment, Indo-Pacific resilience, and Ukraine financial support didn’t make the cut. This gave Russia and the Houthis a window of opportunity to continue disruptive campaigns (both of them took it). This is a critical moment for the G7, unilateral action is necessary but the US must lead.

What we’re watching for: The final communication from the group. What do they message to Israel? Have they reached a deal on Russia? We also might see Emergency EU or NATO sessions. Also, the US has been eyeballing Greenland again, I hope they read the room and realize this isn't the moment to push that, but who knows. It's 2025, anything can happen. (More)

What happened? On June 12, China announced it will remove all tariffs on exports from 53 African countries with which it maintains diplomatic relations. It's no coincidence that this happened just after reaching a tariff reduction deal with the US.

The new Chinese regulations boost middle-income states like Nigeria and South Africa as well as low-income economies. Beijing also pledged technical support for African firms to scale production. While the US and other major powers helped build an industrial base for China, it appears Beijing is doing the same in Africa. The next decade may very well be Made in Africa.

Why it matters. This resets the economic chessboard. China is elevating its trade ties with Africa to rival or surpass Western frameworks. The move is all about value-added exports like textiles and processed metals. This sets China up as the primary external buyer for Africa’s industrial future. It also gives African nations the potential for a further integrated common market. But more money

What we’re watching for: Whether the US or EU respond with new bilateral trade deals or seek to block Chinese supply chain integration via Africa. The US already kicked China out of Panama, but Washington holds much less sway in Africa. (More)

What happened? On June 14, Ukraine’s 225th Assault Regiment pushed Russian forces back by roughly 7 km near the Sumy border, retaking the village of Andriivka. President Zelenskiy credited the effort with halting a coordinated buffer-zone push by Russian mechanized troops. This all comes during a slow roll encroachment during a supposed round of ceasefire talks.

Why it matters. The world is distracted and divided. This is the space that Russia makes massive strategic gains. For Ukraine pushing Russia back represents a tactical win in a high-pressure sector. Russian planners hoped to open a new operational front in the northeast; Ukraine’s pushback preserves key infrastructure and prevents deeper incursion in the region.

What we’re watching for: Evidence of Russian regrouping along the Kharkiv-Sumy corridor, or signs of trench-line entrenchment on the Ukrainian side. Any rapid moves into disputed territory while the world is stunned with the Iran-Israel war. (More)

What happened? On June 13–14, Houthi forces in Yemen launched coordinated attacks on at least three commercial vessels near the Bab al-Mandab strait. US and UK forces under Operation Prosperity Guardian retaliated with airstrikes, and commercial shippers began rerouting vessels via the Cape of Good Hope.

Why it matters. In spite of the US claiming victory in the Red Sea no civilian vessel has passed through. In essence, the Houthis still have area denial at the mouth of the Red Sea. Shipping insurers have hiked premiums, and rerouting adds days and costs to energy and goods flows. This pressure is likely to reverberate through global inflation. Moreover, as Iran attempts to fight back against Israeli attacks it is possible that they shut off the opening to the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz.

What we’re watching for: Whether the Gulf states contribute naval assets to the Western-led patrol force—a key test of shared security burden. What the Houthis do in response to Israeli attacks. (More)

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What happened? On June 12, China’s public security bureau published photos and ID numbers of alleged Taiwanese military hackers, offering public bounties of roughly $1,000 for information on their activities. That same week, a Taiwanese court sentenced the captain of a Chinese vessel to three years in prison for intentionally severing undersea telecom cables near the Penghu islands.

Why it matters. Together, these episodes form a dual-front grey-zone campaign—using information warfare and infrastructure disruption to coerce Taiwan without formal escalation. The undersea cable incidents have become frequent enough to prompt Taipei to formally reclassify them as national security threats. Remember, the internet travels through cables not wifi. If those get cut, we enter world of the chaotic unknown. The more people try to make this happen, the more we learn about how it can be done;.

What we’re watching for: Whether Taipei enhances public cyber attribution efforts or creates deterrence doctrine for undersea sabotage. (More)

People forget how the story of Pandora's Box ends.

The Greek myth goes like this: Prometheus stole fire from the gods. Mankind had claimed agency and acted against its creators. It was only fitting they weaponize that same agency against humanity. They created Pandora, the first woman. They gave her a box (it's a jar in the original story) telling her to never open it.

Her very human curiosity then got the better of her. Pandora opened the lid and out rushes the misery, pain, and inequality which shows itself all to much in our fallen world. But here's the part most people forget… It's the most important part of the story.

There was something left in the box (jar) when nightmares escaped into the world. In Greek, the word is Elpis.

It translates to hope.

This week Pandora's box was opened. Focus on what remains.

Eric Czuleger is a journalist and travel writer who has lived and worked in over 47 countries. He holds a masters degree from the University of Oxford and he is completing a National Security degree from the RAND school of public policy. He's the author of You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don’t Exist, and host of the “This Is Not a the_under_report” TikTok channel.

📚 Liked today’s brief? Dive deeper—check out my book You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don't Exist and explore the world’s unrecognized countries.

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