Hey everyone—
Welcome to The Under Report, your weekly intelligence brief about the stories that move the world without making headlines.
I started this weekly newsletter to make geopolitics clear and accessible to everyone. We can understand the world without bombastic headlines, partisan moralization, or fear mongering. I'm so glad to have you all along for the ride and I can't wait to grow more.
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— Eric
P.S. Remember when Anthony Bourdain went to Gaza?
Bottom Line Up Front
Thailand and Cambodia are in open conflict; hundreds killed or displaced, ceasefire fragile.
State-aligned cyber operations hit U.S. and Russia, gray zone conflict is going mainstream.
UK and France might recognize Palestinian State as Israel imposes ceasefire
Ceasefire between Democratic Republic of the Congo and M23 rebels aiming for a comprehensive peace deal by August 18.
Russia formalizes its Sahel presence: Wagner exits, Africa Corps assumes control, Niger green lights a Russian base.
1 | Thailand and Cambodia Are at War
What happened: Fighting erupted July 24 with Thai F‑16s bombing Cambodian positions. At least 30 killed, 130,000+ displaced, martial law imposed in Thai border provinces. A ceasefire began July 28, but violations continue.
Why it matters: This is the worst escalation in decades. ASEAN diplomacy has failed. Military engagement, not negotiation, is now the primary tool.
What we’re watching for: Whether diplomacy steps in or the region slides into a prolonged, bilateral war.
2 | Cyberwar Goes Overt
What happened: Chinese hackers breached Microsoft SharePoint systems used by U.S. nuclear agencies. Simultaneously, Russian domestic flights were grounded by cyberattacks.
Why it matters: Two different hacks tell two different stories which illuminate a single concept. The frontline is digital. China has invaded key nuclear infrastructure while Russia's airlines were attacked ahead of potential ceasefire talks.
What we’re watching for: Whether the U.S. and Russia answer digital attacks with kinetic action.
3 | Aid Pause as Europe Moves on Palestine
What happened: Israel paused airstrikes to allow daily aid into Gaza which is currently on the brink of mass starvation. Meanwhile, for the first time France announced it will recognize Palestine at the UN General Assembly. The UK said it would consider a similar move after peace talks.
Why it matters: This marks a major break in Western alignment on Israel. Europe is pivoting, and Israel is isolating. The oncoming recognition actually accelerates Israel's timeline which may be one of the reasons that Netanyahu is moving to annex portions of Gaza.
What we’re watching for: Whether this diplomatic shift translates into real negotiation or more entrenched violence. Any concessions on behalf of Israel to the people of Gaza other than allowing food aid.
4 | Congo’s M23 Conflict Moves Toward Peace
What happened: The DRC and M23 signed a ceasefire agreement in Doha on July 19. A full peace deal is promised by August 18.
Why it matters: The end of one of Africa’s deadliest modern insurgencies may be near. However, a peace deal is based upon the withdrawal of Rwanda supported M23 Rebels, which they have not promised. Ultimately, the real winner in this conflict might be the US who helped broker a "security for minerals” deal that makes Washington the beneficiary of Congolese minerals.
What we’re watching for: If M23 actually pulls back and if Rwanda stops quietly backing them. We should also see if the US claims public victory for assisting the peace process or just enjoys the benefits of their mineral deal.
5 | Russia Locks in Its Sahel Position
What happened: Wagner is out and Russia's Africa Corps state-backed paramilitary is in. Niger has approved a permanent Russian military base and Mali is squarely in the pocket of the Kremlin in spite of ongoing clashes with Islamists.
Why it matters: Russia believes that establishing a foothold in the Sahel is critical to its global agenda. This is a huge outpouring of resources in an unstable area while the war in Ukraine rages on.
What we’re watching for: Whether this presence draws a Western response or becomes the new normal. Islamist insurgents in the area also get a vote. Several Russian bases have already been overrun, so the investment might not prove worthy of Moscow.
Like today’s brief? Dive deeper—check out my book You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don't Exist and explore the world’s unrecognized countries.
Eric’s Tinfoil Hat
The last couple of years have given us a disturbing peek into the future of warfare. Drones are doing the heavy lifting in combat and the front line is in cyberspace. It's important to realize that the conflicts of the past inform those of the future, but they almost never look the same.
People ring their hands about the approach of World War III while imagining scenes of D-Day with smartphones. The truth is that conflict has changed dramatically while the goals remain the same. We live in a world of infinite appetites and finite resources which dominant powers will continue to struggle over. Aside from minerals most valuable resources we have at the moment are time, attention, and networks.
Futurist Alvin Toffler stated that wars are always fought through the dominant form of finance and production. World War I was about colonization and trade relations. It was fought using industry and chemistry. World War II was about regional domination and political ideology. It was fought using mass production and physics. World War III will be about network effect and customer bases. It will be fought from long range and in the digital world.
About Eric
Eric Czuleger is a journalist and travel writer who has lived and worked in over 47 countries. He holds a masters degree from the University of Oxford and he is completing a National Security degree from the RAND school of public policy. He's the author of You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don’t Exist, and host of the “The Under Report” TikTok channel.
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