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Hey everyone—
Welcome to The Under Report, your weekly intelligence brief about the stories that move the world without making headlines.

I've just made it across the 500 subscriber mark. Thank you so much, it's such a joy to write to you all. I'm going to be creating paid tiers soon, but everyone currently subscribed will get a special discount!

— Eric

P.S. Check out my latest appearance on the Julian Dorey Podcast.

What happened: While visiting Prague last week, Taiwanese Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim was reportedly targeted in a Chinese-linked assassination attempt disguised as a staged car crash. Czech intelligence sources confirmed the presence of a Chinese asset watching Hsiao’s movements, with speculation that the plan involved ramming her vehicle at speed.
Why it matters: If substantiated, this would represent a major escalation in China’s extraterritorial coercion, specifically in a NATO country. It also highlights Taiwan’s growing vulnerability as its officials gain visibility abroad. The method is the most important part of this story: a car crash is very different from a snipers bullet. If successful it would have provided plausible deniability for Beijing.
What we’re watching for: Diplomatic fallout between China and the Czech Republic; greater security coordination between Taiwan and Eastern European allies; copycat operations against diaspora leaders.
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What happened: Russia launched its most sustained air attack on Ukraine in months, firing over 500 drones, missiles, and glide bombs in a three-day span. This is still ongoing as of this weriting. Cities including Lviv (close to the Polish border) were hit far from the front line. Ukraine’s Air Force reported intercepting the majority, but damage and casualties were significant.
Why it matters: This is tit-for-tat. Ukraine's spiderweb attack took out 1/3 of Russia's strategic bombers, now Moscow is gunning for Kyiv's air assets. The intensity suggests Moscow is testing NATO’s resolve and probing for air defense gaps following delays in Western aid.
What we’re watching for: Deployment of new U.S. Patriot batteries (Donald Trump hinted this might be a possibility) retaliatory Ukrainian strikes on Russian logistics; potential escalation along Belarusian or Black Sea fronts.
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What happened: In a carefully staged photo op, former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson met with Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s deposed Shah. The two spoke privately and posed for cameras in front of a Union Jack and Lion & Sun flag, a symbol of Iran’s monarchy.
Why it matters: In the world of marketing this is called 'bread crumbing,’ or introducing a story through small moments before making a big reveal. The west (unsurprisingly) is attempting to align around the previous dynasty. Pahlavi has gained quiet support among diaspora groups and certain Gulf-aligned think tanks. This event could signal elite testing of public sentiment toward a post-Islamic Republic future.
What we’re watching for: Future Western political endorsements of Pahlavi; Iranian regime backlash or counter-narratives; increased royalist lobbying in DC, London, and Brussels.
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What happened: On June 20, IS–Greater Sahara launched a deadly ambush in Niger’s Tillabéry region, killing 34 soldiers in one of the worst attacks this year. Meanwhile, Al-Qaeda-linked Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) has expanded its control across rural Mali and Burkina Faso, operating courts, schools, and tax systems. With Western forces gone and juntas ruling from weak capitals, these groups now hold de facto governance over swathes of territory.
Why it matters: The Sahel is undergoing a slow collapse. JNIM’s state-building approach contrasts with IS–GS’s insurgent raids but both thrive on the same vacuum: no international troops, fractured national armies, and disenfranchised rural populations. We are witnessing the evolution of non-state actors into proto-states.
What we’re watching for: Spillover into coastal nations like Benin and Ghana; possible turf conflicts between IS–GS and JNIM; new AU or French reengagement.
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What happened: In late June, a cartel believed to be Cárteles Unidos used a drone swarm in coordinated bombings across Michoacán, targeting rival gangs and police infrastructure. At least a dozen drones were outfitted with explosives and flown into buildings in Tepalcatepec, causing multiple injuries. It can't be overstated how critical it is to understand this shift.
Why it matters: This shows that it doesn't take the funding of a nation state to launch an effective drone attack. Mexican cartels are now mimicking tactics seen in Syria and Ukraine, using commercial drones to conduct precision attacks. The use of swarm tactics raises concerns about cartel militarization and cross-border security implications.
What we’re watching for: Federal drone restrictions or countermeasures; U.S. cooperation on anti-drone systems; copycat attacks in border states.
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Everything happens all at once. There is no part of the world that isn't connected to the whole and open source intelligence is always a matter of zooming in and zooming out. The summer is a season to zoom out and try to find the signal in the global noise.

Warm weather gives militaries a three month window to make rapid gains. This is also when planned joint force exercises take over the South Pacific. Diplomatic meetings ramp up and the possibility of change is on the horizon. We've tiptoed towards war between India and Pakistan this year, Iran and Israel have put down their guns for now, and Russia-Ukraine shows no sign of stopping.

We have to understand the pieces to understand the whole.

This summer, I will be traveling to Europe and then (likely) onward towards the Middle East. I will be zooming out while keeping an eye on the ground level.

About Eric

Eric Czuleger is a journalist and travel writer who has lived and worked in over 47 countries. He holds a masters degree from the University of Oxford and he is completing a National Security degree from the RAND school of public policy. He's the author of You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don’t Exist, and host of the “The_Under_Report” TikTok channel.

📚 Liked today’s brief? Dive deeper—check out my book You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don't Exist and explore the world’s unrecognized countries.

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