Bottom Line Up Front

• Arctic ice is melting and since we can't stop climate change, we can prepare to fight in a new ocean.

• Russia dominates the Arctic, they already have more icebreakers than anyone else.

• The icy sea opens more every year and trade is booming, this means whoever wins the Arctic fight gets to make everyone else pay.

• NATO sent 10,000 soldiers to train in the Arctic circle for fun. Just kidding, its to prepare to fight a land war near the North Pole.

• China is there too. They're already building cold weather infrastructure as a part of their Polar Silk Road.

Hey everyone—
Welcome to The Under Report, your weekly intelligence brief about the stories that move the world without making headlines.

I started this weekly newsletter to make geopolitics clear and accessible to everyone. I believe we can collectively understand the world without bombastic headlines, partisan moralization, or fear mongering. I'm so glad to have you all along for the ride and I can't wait to grow more.

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— Eric

P.S. Listen to this on repeat as you read this Under Report.

1 | A Sea Change Nobody Ordered

The summer melt season of 2024 left just 4 million square kilometers of thin ice in September. This is the 6ᵗʰ-lowest extent in the 46-year satellite record. Thickness is eroding even faster; ice older than four years now makes up barely 2 % of the pack. This is pretty bad. But as my old mentor in geopolitics used to say: “No event is universally bad or good. Every change brings challenges and opportunities.” So the biggest militaries and merchants are looking for an opportunity in all that melted ice. After all, what good is a forest fire if you cant fight over who owns the ashes. (NOAA ArcticClimate.gov)

2 | The Icebreaker Gap

Russia rules the icy north. Not only is a significant portion of their country above the Arctic Circle, but they dominate Arctic navigation with a fleet of over 300 icebreakers. (NATO has like 4 on a good day). But Moscow is doubling down on their sea power by planning six nuclear powered icebreakers. The United States, by contrast, keeps a single 47-year-old heavy cutter (Polar Star) sailing on spare parts while its first new Polar Security Cutter has slipped to at least 2030 because of design delays and cost overruns flagged by the Government Accountability Office. Whoever escorts convoys and carrier groups in slushy seas sets the tolls and the norms; right now, that gatekeeper wears a Russian flag.(Government Accountability Office/The Foundation for American Innovation)

3 | Militarization Moves from “What-If” to "When”

NATO’s Joint Viking drill put 10,000 troops from nine nations into Norway’s Arctic North. These were anti-access (defensive) missions and Moscow returned the favor with their own military exercises. Not only did they do live-fire air–sea maneuvers but by they extended the runway at their northernmost base, Nagurskoye, and deploying S-400 air-defense batteries to guard new LNG terminals along the Kara Sea coast. The region’s security profile now looks less like a frozen periphery and more like a forward operating theater. (High North News/Armada International)

5 | Enter the Snow Dragon: China’s “Polar Silk Road”

Beijing calls itself a “near-Arctic state,” a label no geography textbook recognizes. Countries can call themselves whatever they want if they can back it up and China is on a mission to do just that. The domestically built Snow Dragon 2 (great name) can smash 1.5-meter ice and doubles as an oceanographic lab, giving Chinese scientists and military strategists data rights and presence. Belt-and-Road rhetoric now includes a "Polar Silk Road” with China offering finance for Arctic telecom cables and LNG terminals while quietly mapping bathymetry useful for submarines. Joint statements with Russia frame the Arctic as a cooperative frontier, but PLA Navy interest in under-ice acoustics hints at longer-term military hedging.(High North News/The Times)

6 | The Icy Road Ahead

Climate science says a “practically ice-free” Arctic summer is plausible as early as the 2030s. That sucks for a variety of reasons, but for the folks in charge it an opportunity to make some money and project some power. Russia intends to field at least ten nuclear icebreakers and China expects the Xuelong-3 to roam free. Meanwhile the United States hopes to have one cutter on patrol and another one on the way (if it ever gets built. The gap is not merely hardware but political will: funding Arctic warfighting and trade projects means admitting that climate change is both real and impactful. For the US this is an idealogical blindspot that could be exploited because whoever funds infrastructure today will write the shipping rules tomorrow (NOAA Arctic)
 

Bottom line: The coldest frontier on Earth just became the hottest arena for commerce and coercion. If you’re betting on an Arctic future, follow the icebreakers, follow the fiber optic cables, the fighters, and the fuel bills.

Eric’s Tinfoil Hat 🎩 

Climate Change is a definitive challenge of our time. As we fail to address it at the transnational level, the effects will become problems and opportunities for individual countries. While it might make Russia a dominant sea power it could also wipe Vanuatu from the map. Collective action is hard and costly but fighting a war in a new domain that you aren't ready for is worse.

The Pentagon has pivoted with the new administration. Climate change adaptation is often seen as a liberal value and the Secretary of Defense has the right to change strategy as he sees fit. However, I believe he's throwing the national security baby out with the idealogical bathwater. (I wrote that sentence, read it again, and stand by it).

When we refuse to consider climate change from a defense and security perspective we hand over territory to our adversaries. Here's the question: is fighting the political messaging battle today worth losing the wars of tomorrow?

About Eric

Eric Czuleger is a journalist and travel writer who has lived and worked in over 47 countries. He holds a masters degree from the University of Oxford and he is completing a National Security degree from the RAND school of public policy. He's the author of You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don’t Exist, and host of the “This Is Not a PsyOp” TikTok channel. 

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