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Bottom Line Up Front
Israel strikes Syria to protect the Druze in Suwayda, this prompted Bedouin Arab tribes to converge on the area while the nascent Syrian government tries to enforce a ceasefire. This conflict will grow.
Japan’s ruling LDP–Kōmeitō coalition lost its upper‑house majority for the first time since 1969, accelerating political instability ahead of looming U.S. trade deadlines.
Russia’s mass raids on Azerbaijani diaspora in Yekaterinburg have elevated tensions, prompting reciprocal action from Baku and an anticipated ICJ complaint over a 2024 airliner downing. Was it because of intelligence or organized crime?
US trade policy turns on Brazil, with tit-for-tat tariffs and increased scrutiny on the table, Washington is picking a fight with one of the world's biggest emerging economies.
Mali’s junta deepens ties with Russia, hosting the Kremlin’s Africa Corps, signing gold‑refinery and nuclear‑energy deals. Don't worry, the nuclear energy is totally for peaceful purposes.
Hey everyone—
Welcome to The Under Report, your weekly intelligence brief about the stories that move the world without making headlines.
I started this weekly newsletter to make geopolitics clear and accessible to everyone. We can understand the world without bombastic headlines, partisan moralization, or fear mongering. I'm so glad to have you all along for the ride and I can't wait to grow more.
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— Eric
P.S. Check out this Malian musician.
1 | Southern Syria: Israel’s Druze Shield
What happened: A surge of violence erupted in Suwayda province as Druze self‑defense militias clashed with local Bedouin groups. Israel then bombed the Syrian Ministry of Defense and took out Syrian Arab Army armor. Then things got worse. Druze fighters attempted to join the fight from neighboring countries while additional Arab groups including terrorist organizations like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (a former Al Qaeda affiliate) have converged on the area.
Why it matters: Suwayda and the Druze are vital to Israeli defense. The region lies along the Shiite Crescent, a key Iranian supply route, and shields the Israeli-held Golan Heights—loss of which could expose Israel to deep strikes. Continued unrest also risks fracturing Syria’s fragile new government. This is a big deal and I'll write about it in this week's deep dive.
What we’re watching:
Cease‑fire durability: There is a tentative ceasefire in the area, but this could lead to retrenchment rather than retreat.
Syrian regime cohesion: Damascus has sought to reassert control via selective troop deployment, but it's possible that soldiers find more common cause with the Bedouin Arab fighters rather than the Syrian Arab Army. To them the Druze might appear as Israeli sympathizers and therefore a threat.
Israeli follow‑through: More airstrikes and reinforcement of the Golan Heights. (More)
2 | Japan Moves Right: The Rise of Sanseito
What happened: In Japan’s 21 July upper‑house elections, the LDP–Kōmeitō coalition dropped to 122 of 248 seats, failing to secure its previous majority. Populist newcomer Sanseito won 14 seats, riding a wave of anti-immigrant and anti‑establishment sentiment especially among young male voters.
Why it matters: This is a hard right, nationalist push for Japan. For many this is seen as a referendum on the cost of living, influx of foreigners, and a precarious trading position with the west. Economic uncertainty and demographic change almost pushes a population conservative and Japan is no different.
What we’re watching:
Coalition negotiations: Will the current Prime Minister stay on or be ousted by the upset?
Tariff consequences: The US trade deal deadline is coming up on August 1st, now a new government is going to have limited time to cut a big deal.
Sanseito’s momentum: Initially YouTube‑driven nativists, its ascent hints at the rise of “Japanese First” populism echoing global trends. (More)
3 | Yekaterinburg Raid Fallout: Baku Strikes Back
What happened: Russian security forces detained dozens of ethnic Azerbaijanis during raids in Yekaterinburg; at least two died in custody. Azerbaijan responded by detaining Russian journalists and pledged to file an International Court of Justice lawsuit over a December 2024 Azerbaijan Airlines shoot‑down blamed on Russian air defenses.
Why it matters: Baku is threatening international law to pressure Moscow, while Kremlin narratives increasingly depict diaspora communities as agents of Western intelligence. This is more than ethnic bullying, it's part of an internal suppression effort in Russia, but this could push the Azeris closer to other regional powers like Turkey.
What we’re watching:
ICJ filing content: Expect Baku to sue Moscow on ethnic profiling and airliner downing.
Russian diaspora crackdown: Russian may tag NGOs as “foreign agents,” triggering further backlash. This is their playbook from Georgia.
Transport corridor risk: Increased friction could threaten the North–South corridor vital to Azerbaijan’s trade. (More)
4 | The Brazil‑U.S. Showdown
What happened: On 16 July, the United States Trade Representative (USTR) launched a Section 301 probe into Brazil’s Pix instant‑payment system, citing favoritism toward domestic providers and barriers for U.S. technology companies. This was preceded by President Trump’s 50% tariff threat tied to anti-Visa/Mastercard cases. In essence: use US-based payment infrastructure or else.
Why it matters: Brazil is a huge emerging economy. It's the first to face a digital-services investigation under Section 301. The outcome could set precedent for tariffs tied to fiscal tools rather than commodities.
What we’re watching:
Pix protectionism: Will Brazil hit back with WTO legal action or retaliatory duties? Brace for escalation around U.S. software, fintech, or even satellite providers.
Lobbying pressure: Visa, Mastercard, and Silicon Valley are launching campaigns to curb national‑payment platform protectionism. (More)
5 | Mali’s Kremlin Pivot: Nuclear, Gold, and Africa Corps
What happened – Following the exit of Wagner mercenaries, Mali’s junta chief visited Moscow, signing deals on nuclear energy, a Russia‑backed gold refinery, and continued cooperation with Russia’s Africa Corps instructors and drones. So, nuclear stuff and gold and weapons and soldiers. This is always a recipe for peace and stability.
Why it matters: Bamako is shifting from private military to state‑backed Kremlin influence. Essentially, they're hard-launching their relationship by embedding nuclear cooperation and gold processing into the deal, and renewing Russian military parity in the Sahel. (More)
What we’re watching:
Africa Corps deployment: What are Russian soldiers doing in Mali? We're keeping our eye on open source data for a rise in violence. Check out this piece by ACLED for an idea of what we're looking at.
Resource linkages: The new refinery and nuclear pact could trigger EU or U.S. sanctions targeting mining partnerships.
Eric's Tin Foil Hat
I've just left the United States, returning to my home-away-from-home in Albania. But still, sitting at a coffee shop in Tirana, is near impossible to leave the US news cycle. While the left and right shout at one another about the Epstein client list, Southern Syria is falling apart and Russia is setting up shop in Mali. So here's the question? Is this by design?
My answer isn't edgy but I think it's correct. No, I don't think the larger American public is being distracted with salacious news events. I think that a billionaire sex party island is more interesting than understanding the tribal politics of Southern Syria and how they lead to violence.
If you want a look at the future the answer usually isn't on the front page with cacophonous headlines. Right now, there are canaries in Syria, Mali, and Japan. They're singing their heads off. But as usual, you have to know what to listen for to hear it.
About Eric
Eric Czuleger is a journalist and travel writer who has lived and worked in over 47 countries. He holds a masters degree from the University of Oxford and he is completing a National Security degree from the RAND school of public policy. He's the author of You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don’t Exist, and host of the “The Under Report” TikTok channel.
📚 Liked today’s brief? Dive deeper—check out my book You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don't Exist and explore the world’s unrecognized countries.