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Bottom Line Up Front
Armenia and Azerbaijan sign the U.S.-backed TRIPP corridor deal, reshaping Eurasian trade routes.
U.S. and Russia meet in Alaska to discuss Ukraine in their first face-to-face since 2021.
Colombian mercenaries surface in Sudan’s civil war, boosting the RSF.
Somalia brings in the UN to try and push back insurgent groups on the Horn of Africa
Chinese ships collide in contested waters. Was this just an accident or a leading indicator?
Hey everyone—
Welcome to The Under Report, your weekly intelligence brief about the stories that move the world without making headlines.
I started this weekly newsletter to make geopolitics clear and accessible to everyone. We can understand the world without bombastic headlines, partisan moralization, or fear mongering. I'm so glad to have you all along for the ride and I can't wait to grow more.
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— Eric
P.S. Check out this cooking video from my favorite Georgian creator. I love how he shows everyday life in the Republic of Georgia. (Tell him the Under Report sent you, in the comments)
1 | Azerbaijan and Armenia are TRIPPing
What happened?
Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a U.S.-brokered peace deal that includes the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a 99-year transit corridor running through Armenia to link mainland Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave. The agreement was announced at the White House, with Turkey welcoming the deal. Meanwhile Iran is opposing the deal with or without the help of Moscow. (More)
Why does it matter?
The TRIPP bypasses both Iran and Russia, giving Washington strategic leverage over a key Eurasian trade artery. This effectively pushes Russian influence out of the Southern Caucuses while also putting US business and security infrastructure on the border with Iran.
What we’re watching for:
How Armenia’s domestic politics handle the agreement. They got the short end of the stick here and that could push them closer to Russia.
Whether Iran makes good on threats to disrupt the corridor. Will it be in courts or with bullets?
How Russia responds to diminished influence in the region. While it might see they are stretched thin globally, Armenia and Azerbaijan are squarely in their back yard and this move will likely be answered.
2 | U.S.–Russia Summit in Alaska
What happened?
President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin are set to meet in Anchorage on August 15 to discuss Ukraine, marking their first in-person talks since 2021. U.S. officials say the summit will focus on “conditions for ending hostilities,” while Kyiv has expressed concern over not being directly included in the talks. (More)
Why does it matter?
Public summits like this are a highwire act. Both sides need to walk away with a win for their domestic audiences. However, without Ukraine at the table, there is a risk of a settlement that prioritizes great-power interests over Kyiv’s sovereignty. It also tests NATO unity at a time of war fatigue in the West.
What we’re watching for:
Whether European allies can secure a seat at the table. Moreover, if Ukraine supports the meeting.
Any shift in military posture on the ground. Currently fighting is ongoing which indicates that Ukraine and Russia will attempt to make gains until the bitter end.
Signals of new borders emerging. The US signed a security for minerals agreement with Ukraine, will that area be protected or given to Russia?
3 | Colombian Mercenaries in Sudan
What happened?
In a case of why are you fighting here? Colombian fighters are operating alongside Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Not only have they been shown fighting on the side of the RSF, but they've also conducted aid deliveries to affected areas. The mercenaries, some with prior military or private security experience, are allegedly being paid via Gulf-based intermediaries to bolster RSF offensives in Khartoum and Darfur. (More)
Why does it matter?
The mercenaries were hired by a UAE-based firm, but the Gulf denies direct support. If it arms the conflict and supplies the soldiers it will be more and more difficult to deny attribution.
What we’re watching for:
Whether the UN or African Union moves to sanction recruiters. Maybe they even go a step further with direct support to the Sudanese government.
Turkey previously positioned itself as a neutral peacemaker in the region, but evidence of inserting foreign troops shows bad faith for negotiations.
Well trained foreign soldiers provide battlefield effects, what are those? Meanwhile, how are local populations reacting to foreign mercenaries?
Check out my book You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don't Exist and explore the world’s unrecognized countries.
Somalia: UN Steps In as al-Shabaab Push Escalates
What happened?
Somalia’s Ministry of Defense and the United Nations Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS) signed a strengthened support agreement aimed at bolstering the Somali National Army (SNA) in its fight against al-Shabaab. The deal covers non-lethal equipment, transport and logistics, medical support, and specialized training to help secure and stabilize areas reclaimed from militants.
This comes amid a turbulent week in Somalia, where al-Shabaab’s Shabelle offensive has brought fighting close to Mogadishu’s security perimeter, prompting fresh responses from Somali, Djiboutian, Turkish, and U.S. forces. (More)
Why does it matter?
Somalia is throwing everything but the kitchen sink at al-Shabaab. They've brought in the help of Turkey, Djibouti, the African Union and now the United Nations. This means a lot of investment in stabilizing the Horn of Africa and denying operational space to jihadists. This is particularly important given the rumblings about al-Shabaab/Houthi alliance. Two questions here: Can al-Shabab be repelled? More importantly, can Mogadishu govern?
What we’re watching for:
Whether UN support adds operational capacity or chaos to the mix. Currently there are many independently operating forces opposing a unified front, that's rarely a recipe for success.
The impact of targeted strikes on al-Shabaab’s financial leadership. Does this create funding or recruitment shortfalls?
Somaliland's response, the autonomous region has been slowly building while Mogadishu attempts to stabilize. Do they stay out or secure their borders.
5 | Chinese Vessels Collide Near Scarborough Shoal
What happened?
A Chinese Coast Guard cutter collided with a Chinese Navy destroyer during a pursuit of a Philippine Coast Guard vessel near Scarborough Shoal. Footage released by Manila shows the destroyer cutting across the cutter’s bow, crushing it and rendering it unseaworthy. The Philippines condemned the incident and China has not publicly acknowledged it. (More)
Why does it matter?
The collision underscores rising operational risk in contested South China Sea waters. Scarborough Shoal is strategically valuable for fisheries, shipping lanes, and as a potential military outpost. The incident also raises questions about coordination between Chinese maritime forces, if they can't keep their boats from running into each other can they control the South China Sea?
What we’re watching for:
Any internal disciplinary action by Beijing. Moreover, does China even acknowledge that it happened?
U.S.–Philippines joint patrol responses. Will there be an uptick in patrols to probe potential Chinese weaknesses?
Whether ASEAN moves forward on a long-delayed code of conduct. Asia's transnational body needs to make effective policy if it wants to be legitimate.
Eric’s Tinfoil Hat
There is no rule that says governments must be competent. Long range plans are difficult to execute and the adversary always gets a vote. This is one of the reasons why I think its upside down when people attribute god-like powers to governments and militaries. More often than not they are reacting to stimulus rather than shaping an environment.
Somalia's government is bringing thousands of fighters and billions in material into its borders to stop insurgents. Even with all the kings horses and all the kings men, it appears that Mogadishu can't put Somalia back together again. Many in the West assume that China is the emerging super power, but it still has accidents in its strategic space. The only place that nations have uncontested power is in the minds of their supporters.
We're now entering a time when great powers are forced to take great action. It will be difficult to imagine the world that will emerge as the balance of forces shifts. We should expect failures spun into successes, opportunities left untaken, and outright silly moves. As usual, don't trust what leaders say, judge progress based off of position and not politics.
About Eric
Eric Czuleger is a journalist and travel writer who has lived and worked in over 47 countries. He holds a masters degree from the University of Oxford and he is completing a National Security degree from the RAND school of public policy. He's the author of You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don’t Exist, and host of the “The_Under_Report” TikTok channel.
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