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Bottom Line Up Front
China slashes rare-earth magnet exports, throttling key supply chains for Western defense and EV industries.
Israel crosses into Syria with overt ground raids, signaling a shift from containment to direct action post-Assad.
EU unity fractures as Malta recognizes Palestine while Estonia rejects the move outright.
Djibouti formalizes its military presence in Somalia, expanding its influence in the Horn of Africa.
The U.S. imposes new tariffs on 68 countries, hitting Brazil and India hardest in a high-stakes trade power play.
Hey everyone—
Welcome to The Under Report, your weekly intelligence brief about the stories that move the world without making headlines.
I started this weekly newsletter to make geopolitics clear and accessible to everyone. We can understand the world without bombastic headlines, partisan moralization, or fear mongering. I'm so glad to have you all along for the ride and I can't wait to grow more.
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— Eric
P.S. My dear friend's remarkable film Match in a Haystack just dropped. Find out where it is playing and go see it.
1 | China Tightens Rare-Earth Magnet Exports—Again
What happened?
Beijing is once again restricting global access to rare-earth magnets, a vital component in everything from electric vehicles to guided missiles. The new choke point is export licenses, especially to buyers connected to defense sectors in the U.S. and EU. Shipments have plunged nearly 50% year-over-year, despite expectations of easing tensions.
Why does it matter?
China controls over 90% of the world’s refined rare-earth magnet supply, giving it immense leverage over both clean energy and defense sectors. These materials are crucial for wind turbines, smartphones, EVs, radar systems, and hypersonic weapons. Since it takes time to create new mineral supply chains the world is stuck with China as its supplier for the time being.
The West is scrambling to ramp up domestic processing capacity, but it’s a long game. This move suggests China is playing for geopolitical leverage now, forcing Washington and Brussels to choose between supply chain independence and technological progress.
What are we looking for?
Will the U.S. or EU impose retaliatory export controls in other strategic sectors (probably not)?
Can rare-earth independence be scaled in time to protect industrial security?
Will Japan, Australia, or Vietnam emerge as reliable alternative suppliers? (More)
2 | Israeli Forces Raid Southern Syria as Post-Assad Vacuum Widens
What happened?
Israel conducted four coordinated raids near the Druze-majority town of Hader in southern Syria this week. The targets were suspected weapons trafficking sites, and interrogations were carried out by Israel’s Unit 504. This marks the most overt Israeli military operation inside Syrian territory since Bashar al-Assad’s fall in late 2024.
Why does it matter?
For over a decade, Israel’s approach to Syria was defined by containment: airstrikes, deterrence, and backchannel coordination with Russia. This week’s ground incursion is about denying operational space to adversaries operating in the Druze majority area (which acts as their buffer).
Syria’s internal fragmentation is no longer just a Syrian problem. With no central authority and multiple foreign actors involved, border regions are becoming flashpoints.
What are we looking for?
Will Israel continue operations deeper into Syrian territory?
How will the Bedouin Arab tribesmen operating in the area react? They can either double down on fighting the Druze or call it a day.
Bigger powers calling Israel out for consistently operating outside of its borders. (More)
3 | EU Splits on Palestine: Malta In, Estonia Out
What happened?
Malta announced it will formally recognize the State of Palestine at the upcoming UN General Assembly session, joining countries like France, and (maybe) the UK in a growing diplomatic bloc. In contrast, Estonia rejected the move outright, calling it premature and diplomatically irresponsible.
Why does it matter?
The Gaza War has forced a reckoning in European capitals, and now the question of Palestinian statehood is dividing old allies. For Malta and others, recognition is a symbolic act of justice. For Estonia and its cohort, it's a premature reward in a conflict still dominated by militant governance and instability.
This growing split reveals deep fractures within the EU on Middle East policy, threatening to undermine collective foreign policy not just on Palestine, but on future global crisis responses.
What are we looking for?
Will Germany or Italy follow Malta’s lead?
Can the EU find a coherent position, or is unity on foreign policy unraveling?
How might Israel react as they move towards greater control of Gaza? (More)
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4 | Djibouti Reinforces Somalia: 1,500 Troops, New Legal Mandate
What happened?
Djibouti and Somalia signed a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) this week, formalizing the presence of 1,520 Djiboutian troops across key towns in central Somalia. These forces, operating under the AUSSOM framework, are part of the broader stabilization mission as African Union operations transition beyond ATMIS.
Why does it matter?
Djibouti is small, but its role in the Horn of Africa is outsized. With a legal framework now in place, its military presence becomes more entrenched and internationally legitimized. Towns like Beledweyne and Dhusamareeb sit on key fault lines in Somalia’s fight against Al-Shabaab.
This move also ensures operational continuity at a time when African Union peacekeeping architecture is evolving and international partners are dialing back their own commitments. Djibouti’s commitment may foreshadow a new era of African-led security frameworks, but it also exposes its troops to direct insurgent threats.
What are we looking for?
Will other AU member states follow Djibouti’s example with formal bilateral security agreements?
How will Al-Shabaab respond to a more permanent foreign military presence?
Could this signal Djibouti’s ambition to become a regional military hub? (More)
5 | Brazil and India Hit Hardest as New U.S. Tariffs Take Hold
What happened?
The US imposed sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” on 68 countries on August 2. Brazil will be hit hardest, facing tariffs up to 50% with India catching fire as well. The policy covers a wide array of industrial, electronic, and textile imports.
Why does it matter?
These tariffs are strategic. Though framed as correcting trade imbalances (Brazil hasn't had a trade deficit with the US in a decade) the moves appear politically motivated. This is problematic because Brazil is a rising global economy which could help bolster the US position. Moreover, it's the B, in BRICS and encouraging Brazil to take its business elsewhere is a dangerous game.
What are we looking for?
Will Brazil or India retaliate with their own tariffs or WTO complaints?
Could this sour joint ventures in tech, space, or defense?
Is the U.S. moving toward a broader decoupling with emerging powers? (More)
Eric’s Tinfoil Hat
There are levels to every game, but time is the ultimate judge of success. When we see geopolitics through the news were usually seeing a curated version of the truth. Trade deals are an abstraction but their effects are real. Empty shelves and full bank accounts are where the real politics begin. Those take hold in between the signing of a document and its generation of policy.
It seems that there are two ways that nations are dealing with US trade policy. One strategy is choosing not to play the game. The other is to negotiate for a small win on behalf of the US. These represent long term and short term strategies. By choosing not to renegotiate its possible that an administration change will return to preferable trade conditions. By conceding a small win, business can continue more or less as normal.
In the end, success depends entirely on who you ask and when you ask them. Did Europe renegotiate its terms with the US? Yes. That's a win for the administration for now. Does this lead to a weakened economy and a strained relationship with Europe? Possibly. We'll have to wait for a couple more turns of the clock to find out.
In the end, the clock remains undefeated.
About Eric
Eric Czuleger is a journalist and travel writer who has lived and worked in over 47 countries. He holds a masters degree from the University of Oxford and he is completing a National Security degree from the RAND school of public policy. He's the author of You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don’t Exist, and host of the “The_Under_Report” TikTok channel.
📚 Liked today’s brief? Dive deeper—check out my book You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don't Exist and explore the world’s unrecognized countries.