Hey everyone—
Welcome to The Under Report, your weekly intelligence brief about the stories that move the world without making headlines.

I started this weekly newsletter to make geopolitics clear and accessible to everyone. We can understand the world without bombastic headlines, partisan moralization, or fear mongering. I'm so glad to have you all along for the ride and I can't wait to grow more.

Share The Under Report if you know someone who would appreciate a weekly intel update. Also, make sure to check out our sponsors to keep the Under Report rolling.

— Eric

P.S. A Dutch fighter showed up to Southern Syria, turns out that's not so weird. Check out this deep dive on the connection (after you've read this week's report).

On July 16th, the Ministry of Defense in Damascus Syria exploded live on television. A large secondary explosion ripped through the building while news broadcasters took cover. This strike was not preemptive or retaliatory. Instead it was conducted in defense of an ethno-religious minority at the crossroads of conflict in the Middle East. 

The Druze are autonomous outliers wedged between Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, and Syria. Their faith blends elements of gnosticism, neoplatonism, and Abrahamic monotheism. Their insular culture denies converts and prioritizes intermarriage which keeps the population small. But their position on the map makes them critical allies for maintaining Israeli security while also putting them in the crosshairs of regional militaries.

Here's why the Druze of Southern Syria are currently fighting at the newest flashpoint of the Middle East.

The Syrian Druze population lies in Suwayda province. It lies just 55 km east of the Golan Heights, which is currently claimed by Israel. Roughly 500 000 Druze or about three percent of Syria’s population concentrate in this area. The plateau itself rises more than above northern Israel offering clear strategic advantage for anyone willing to take the high ground. 

Since the 1967 Six-Day War, Israel’s doctrine in the Golan has revolved around “negative control.” This means keeping the highlands quiet, either by occupation or local alignment. In southern Syria, that meant informal understandings with the Druze. But the battlefield changed after 2011.

The collapse of central control in Damascus and the rise of Iranian proxy groups transformed Suwayda from a quiet enclave into a strategic chokepoint. Iranian weapons and fighters flowing west toward Lebanon increasingly brushed against Druze villages. Though the Druze maintained relative autonomy during the civil war, a weak Syrian government, marriage of convenience with Israel, and centuries of tribal animosity have pushed their communities to the brink.

To boil it down: Israel sees them as a buffer. Iran sees them as an obstacle. Bedouin Arab tribes and Sunni extremists throughout Syria see them as targets.

Although no formal alliance exists, the Druze are widely seen by local Arab militias as sympathetic to Israel. The history is not subtle: Druze serve in the IDF, and Israel has provided humanitarian and covert medical aid to Syrian Druze populations during the civil war. And recently Defense Minister Israel Katz made that alignment explicit in July 2025, stating: “We will not allow harm to come to the Druze.”

That statement was tested immediately. Bedouin tribal groups, along with jihadist factions including Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and remnants of al-Qaeda affiliates, began targeting Druze self-defense militias. Foreign fighters poured into the region with one extremist traveling all the way from the Netherlands to fight in Southern Syria.

Meanwhile, Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa's army attempted to crush the unrest by enforcing ceasefires through the Syrian Arab Army. But with a new government in Damascus and old tribal loyalties Damascus has little leverage to stop the chaos.

It's hard to stop violence between two warring parties. Both Ukraine and Russia have been locked in a grinding war of attrition for years with little movement. This is in spite of diplomatic ties, UN backchannels, and war-weary populations. The fight in Syria is anything but two sided. 

Let's break down the constraints and imperatives to find out how implacable it is:

Al-Sharaa's nascent government has pushed Damascus closer to the West. The UK, France and even South Korea have reestablished relations with the embattled nation. Meanwhile, the US and EU have lifted sanctions. Even Saudi Arabia, though not western, is promising economic integration and investment.

This embrace comes at a cost: al-Sharaa must deny strategic space to Iran while keeping a lid on tribal animosities and terrorist elements within Syria. This is a tall order because the country contains a lot of both. Meanwhile, the Syrian Arab Army is only partially under his control with some elements having closer ties to regional powers.

Sunni fighters like Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham want to keep their regional power and relevance emanating from the Syrian city of Idlib. Al-Sharaa is suspect to them due to the fact he used to be a Sunni hardliner that has embraced the West for state power. Meanwhile, regional Bedouin Arab tribesmen see the Druze as an extension of Israeli control and regional domination.

The Druze want to maintain their autonomy while Israel needs to protect their strategic foothold in the Golan Heights. 

The bottom line is this:

Multiple heavily armed, battle hardened groups have different reasons to go to war in Suwayda. If the Syrian government uses too much force it can trigger a new civil war. If they don't stop the violence they risk a newly built relationship with the West. If the Druze don't protect their land, their communities will be overrun and the Golan Heights will be vulnerable. If Israel reinforces Southern Syria with ground troops they will be fighting a three front war with three different countries in the Middle East. 

There is no single party that can bargain for this conflict to stop.

So far, the conflict has seen multiple ceasefires which were subsequently broken. While a ceasefire of any length might seem like a small victory it can be the opposite. Ceasefires, when enacted too early, often make conflicts worse.

The violence in Suwada came rapidly. Forces had little time to prepare materially and strategize. Ceasefires can act as a tactical pause for organization and planning. While guns might have fallen silent for brief periods and de facto diplomats are talking, it is likely that all sides are using this as an opportunity to enter a planning phase rather than suing for a protracted peace.

Where we go from here depends entirely on establishing a new equilibrium. It is likely this will be accomplished militarily, but whoever commits the assets to do this will gain control over the strategic choke point in Southern Syria. It is possible that Syria commits additional assets to the area to protect the Druze. It is equally possible that Israel enhances its position and opens a new gray zone conflict. Bedouin Arab tribes and Sunni extremists can act as spoilers for either of these outcomes.

Regardless, this conflict is far from over.

Eric Czuleger is a journalist and travel writer who has lived and worked in over 47 countries. He holds a masters degree from the University of Oxford and he is completing a National Security degree from the RAND school of public policy. He's the author of You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don’t Exist, and host of the “The Under Report” TikTok channel.

📚 Liked today’s brief? Dive deeper—check out my book You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don't Exist and explore the world’s unrecognized countries.