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Hey everyone—
Welcome to The Under Report, your weekly intelligence brief about the stories that move the world without making headlines.

I started this weekly newsletter to make geopolitics clear and accessible to everyone. I believe we can collectively understand the world without bombastic headlines, partisan moralization, or fear mongering. I'm so glad to have you all along for the ride. I need you to me grow!

Share the Under Report if you know someone who would appreciate a perspective from outside the typical headlines. Also, make sure to scroll to the end for Eric's Tin Foil Hat.

— Eric

P.S.

Check out this guy surfing a coal train through the Sahara. The world is really neat.

What happened?
Container traffic is surging in the Panama Canal after the US pushed it out of China's orbit. Back in February Panama served Beijing 90-day notice to quit the Belt and Road Initiative—the first Latin-American withdrawal. Officials blamed stalled funding and “sovereignty concerns.” This led to concerns that shipping would go sideways, but it appears the opposite has happened. (More)

Why it matters.
This is a strategic win for the US and it's 'hemispheric defense model.’ The Belt and Road initiative has been crawling across the world for a decade with little answer from any major power. This is a big loss for Beijing. Don't feel too bad for them though China has 21 other BRI deals in the region and the Arctic might one day make the Panama Canal irrelevant. (More)

What we’re watching for.
Whether Colombia or Ecuador decide to ditch the Belt and Road Initiative too. Also, does this make China sweeten deals for other regional players? The US should be doing a touchdown dance right now, but the administration has been quiet about it.

What happened?
Nigeria is bringing in crypto and arresting anyone who throws money at parties. Looks like the play to turn hard currency inflows into the coin of the realm is moving forward. In mid-February the Africa Stablecoin Consortium launched cNGN, a naira-pegged token fully backed by reserves at custodian banks. By 10 Feb, 66 million tokens sat in 18 wallets—already eclipsing use of the state eNaira. (More)

Why it matters.
Nigeria’s informal economy is over half of the GDP. That means the government gets no bite off of those transactions. A fee-light stablecoin could steal business from banks and dollar backed stablecoins alike. This would give Abuja a private-sector ally in its cash-crunch fight without footing the tech bill. I've said it before and I'll say it again: crypto is a helluva drug. It might bring better economic infrastructure to Nigeria, but it will also bring scams, and crime. Digital currencies are all about self-custody and its easier to kidnap and torture someone than to rob a bank.

What we’re watching for.
Upcoming CBN caps on wallet size (to calm bank-run fears) and whether remittance giants add cNGN rails, testing cross-border demand.

What happened?
The Philippines has fancy new missiles. Manila declared its first BrahMos coastal battery is ready and working. Meanwhile there is a second launcher en-route under its $375 m 2022 deal. Each mobile truck packs two Mach-3, 290 km-range missiles, which is ideal for shooting at Chinese ships. (More)

Why it matters.
This gives the Philippines the fastest land-based anti-ship system in the Indo-Pacific outside China. It forces the PLA Navy to widen patrol arcs inside the West Philippine Sea and signals budding India–Philippines defense partnership. It could also add another spine to Taiwan's porcupine. Everyone is arming up in the Indo-Pacific, the question is, can China be contained?

What we’re watching for.
Whether a battery appears on Palawan, which will make the Chinese super mad. We should also see if Vietnam or Indonesia decide they want some missiles too.

What happened?
EU Naval Mission Aspides reports traffic at the mouth of the Red Sea has climbed to 36–37 ships a day. This is up 60 percent since August-2024 due to the U.S.–Houthi cease-fire. Pre-crisis flow was 72–75. It sounds small but it's a big deal. If you have a thing or turn on a light, or use the internet, it came through the Red Sea. (More)

Why it matters.
Each Cape-of-Good-Hope detour costs ≈ $1 m in fuel on Asia–EU routes. The Red Sea closure mainly affects Europe and Asia, but the US expends political capital and ammo to keep it open. The rebound eases freight inflation, yet Aspides fields only two or three escorts and has downed 18 drones with tight munitions; one mis-ID could jack insurance back to crisis levels and turn off the tap of freight again.

What we’re watching for.
Whether EU states send the 10-ship reinforcement requested. If the Houthi missiles start flying again. Also, does Iran start replenishing the supplies used to attack the ships? Nuclear talks didn't go so well, so they might go shopping for leverage.

What happened?
Nuclear energy is coming to Turkey. Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said in January that fuel loading and hot tests at Akkuyu-1 are “over 90 % complete,” targeting a late-2025 grid connection. The $20 bn, four-reactor plant is built and will be lifetime-operated by Russia’s Rosatom. It's too late to back out now, so let's see what happens when it's operational. (More)

Why it matters.
Turkey always plays the sides against the center. Now its a NATO member with Russian operated nuclear power for the next 60 years. This gives Moscow steady electricity revenue and operational data while cutting up to 10 % of Turkey’s gas imports—blunting future sanctions leverage. Oh and by the way, they (likely) host nuclear missile silos for the US. All of this put together means that Turkey can be everyones marriage of convenience.

What we’re watching for.
Whether Ankara gambles on Rosatom fuel for unit 2; if it does, expect EU energy hawks to seek export-control carve-outs targeting Rosatom’s supply chain. Also, we should see if there are any changes at the American Incirlik Airbase. The Turks threaten to shut it down every five years or so.

Everything is a continuum.

How things change gives you a glimpse into the future of what they might be. Finding oil turns into political power, then it becomes a security liability, eventually a diplomatic bargaining chip. Hard money goes digital and takes an economy global. A chain of islands fencing in a navy turns into their strategic launch pad.

Someone once said that history is simply the study of change. I tend to agree. Everything is a clock ticking off minutes if you know how to read it. When we look at a picture of ancient ruins on our smartphone inside of the new Starbucks, the great conversation of history is happening all around us. But do we listen?

The easiest way to do this is to look around and ask yourself a simple question: better or worse? Will this place be better or worse 5 years from now? How about 10? Don't look at the news, look around you. Are streetlights on? Do you see young parents with strollers? What part of the continuum are you in?

About Eric

Eric Czuleger is a journalist and travel writer who has lived and worked in over 47 countries. He holds a masters degree from the University of Oxford and he is completing a National Security degree from the RAND school of public policy. He's the author of You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don’t Exist, and host of the “This Is Not a PsyOp” TikTok channel.

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