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Bottom Line Up Front

• Ukraine’s “Spiderweb” drones torches a third of Russia’s bombers.

• China & the Philippines duke it out over Scarborough Shoal.

• Beijing quietly builds its Pentagon while Australia commits to new subs.

• Nigeria bans "making it rain” at weddings and crypto moves in.

• Starship’s fiery spin stalls NASA’s 2027 Moon date.

Hey everyone—
Welcome to The Under Report, your weekly intelligence brief about the stories that move the world without making headlines.

I started this weekly newsletter to make geopolitics clear and accessible to everyone. We can understand the world without bombastic headlines, partisan moralization, or fear mongering. I'm so glad to have you all along for the ride and I can't wait to grow more.

Share The Under Report if you know someone who would appreciate a weekly intel update.

— Eric

P.S. Check out this video that landed a Nigerian ballet dancer a full scholarship in New York. The world is cool for the most part. The news doesn't report that, but it is.

1 | Ukraine’s 1 000-km Drone Punch

What happened?
On 1 June, Ukrainian security services launched over 100 do-it-yourself drones from inside Russia. The drones hit four airfields and destroyed roughly a third of Moscow's strategic bomber force. This is a remarkable intelligence operation which some are calling "Russia's Pearl Harbor.” (The Guardian/France 24)

Why it matters.
Ukraine just proved that the Kremlin’s nuclear-delivery fleet is vulnerable far from the front line, forcing Russia to shift bombers deeper into Siberia. The deeper they push bombers the slower they are to strike and the more burn fuel they burn on attack. But this story is bigger because it hands Kyiv leverage at the Istanbul peace talks. Who knows, maybe Putin will show up to the peace talks this time.

What we're watching for.
Moscow is going to have to answer back to this. The only question is how that will happen. We also want to see if Ukraine and Russia change some of their core demands in peace talks. This was a complex intelligence operation which seemingly took a year to plan. It begs the question: What else could Ukraine have within Russian borders?

2 | Scarborough Shoal Gets Spicy (Again)

What happened?
Two Chinese Navy frigates tailed and repeatedly crossed the bow of the Philippine corvette BRP Emilio Jacinto. The Chinese ship blasted it with a water-cannon 12 nautical miles from Scarborough Shoal; Manila posted the video hours later. (USNI News/Taipei Times)

Why it matters.
Scarborough Shoal is a tiny important reef. Whoever controls it gains de facto sway over a resource-rich stretch of the South China Sea gets to enforce their rules.One bad bump could invoke the 1951 U.S.–Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, and Manila’s “Go-Pro doctrine” turns every grey-zone scrape into viral content that narrows Beijing’s plausible-deniability space. (South China Morning Post)

What we're watching for.
Whether Beijing escalates with coast-guard swarms or backs off ahead of U.S.–Philippines war-games in July. We also want to see if Manila begins operating additional patrols in the area.

3 | Allies Bulk Up—Beijing Digs Down

What happened?
The UK's Royal Navy is growing its fleet from seven to from 7 to 12 nuclear-powered attack submarines and pledged to lift defense spending to 2.5 % of GDP by 2027. a day later at Singapore’s Shangri-La Dialogue, Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles publicly pressed Beijing to explain what he called the “extraordinary conventional military build-up—the largest since World War II.” Satellite photography has shows rapid work on "Beijing's Military City” a 1 500-acre joint-command complex southwest of the capital that analysts say will be about ten times the size of The Pentagon (BBC/ Business Times)

Why it matters.
This looks like a slow arms race doesn't it? Australia has gotten a bit too close to China over the last couple decades and now they're calling Beijing out directly. Meanwhile, building a traditional command and control center outside of the capital seems to indicate the desire to use it. This Military City means that China can stay safe while directing operations. (Newsweek)

What we're watching for.
How fast we see new submarines launched (we likely won't know where they go, that's kind of the point). We also want to keep an eye on this growing Military City, specifically what kinds of protective infrastructure is being developed.

4 | Nigeria — Cash Crackdowns × Crypto Courtship

What happened.
Nigeria is threatening to jail party goers for up to 6 months if they spray naira bank notes. This is a cultural practice known in the US as making it rain or throwing money all over people during a celebration. The original ban on niara Abuse was created in 2007, but now a Tik Tok star has been sentenced to prison over throwing currency around. Meanwhile Nigeria's Investment and Securities Act 2025 officially recognized digital assets in Nigeria sending Blockchain.com to open an office in Lagos. (Financial Times/Cointelegraph)

 Why it matters.
Money only works if people believe in it. Abuja is fighting a 70 % naira price slide with a stick-and-carrot approach. Regulators have to punish cultural cash displays to boost “currency respect.” Meanwhile they have to woo regulated crypto to attract remittances and hard-currency inflows. The policy cocktail could just as easily shake confidence as steady it. If someone it threatening to take you to jail for disrespecting their money, they're probably trying to retain value at the end of a gun.

What we’re watching
Foreign exchange policy pivots. It's clear more global currency needs to come into Nigeria, let's see how they get it. There might be additional action against anyone who dare spray some cash at a wedding. We also want to understand the regulatory framework for taxing crypto. While it could bring in some cash, it could also invite scams and chaos.

5 | Starship Stumble Puts Artemis on Ice

What happened?
SpaceX Starship Flight 9 disintegrated during re-entry making this the vehicle’s third consecutive loss. NASA officials admit that the 2027 Artemis III crewed landing is now “under review.” It makes one wonder if it's going to happen at all. (The Washington Post)

Why it matters.
We're in a new space race and this one is arguably more important. The Artemis Accords, now with 39 signatories hinge on U.S. credibility and spaceships not exploding. If NASA misses diplomatic gravity tilts toward Beijing’s space ship (target 2028). This also undercuts Washington’s push to write the rulebook for off-world resources. (NASA)

What we’re watching for.
Starship’s first fully successful orbital-refuel test. Without fuel its hard to go anywhere, let alone the moon. We also want to monitor Chinese progress towards their manned mission. If they make it to the moon first it could edge out US space dominance.

Eric’s Tinfoil Hat 🎩 

Why include a story about throwing money around at Nigerian weddings?

I'm glad you asked.

On the ground indicators are a great source of evidence for geopolitical change. If you want to find out how the public feels about a political leader you ask a cab driver. Need a good barometer for the economy? Find out how many women are going to the salon and how often. Concerned that Nigeria's cash economy is on the fritz? Watch as someone jailed for throwing bills in the air.

Open source intelligence is all about zooming in and zooming out. The personal is the political. A war in Ukraine spikes the price of bread in the Middle East. People rise up when they're hungry and pissed. They revolt when they see a future where they're more likely to be hungry and pissed more often. That's what changes the world. The price of LNG coming out of Russia makes a difference to institutional investors, but when it hits the pocketbook of French farmers, political change becomes more likely.

Scattered across the dance floor of a wedding in Lagos is evidence of the changing world.

About Eric

Eric Czuleger is a journalist and travel writer who has lived and worked in over 47 countries. He holds a masters degree from the University of Oxford and he is completing a National Security degree from the RAND school of public policy. He's the author of You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don’t Exist, and host of the “This Is Not a PsyOp” TikTok channel. 

📚 Liked today’s brief? Dive deeper—check out my book You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don't Exist and explore the world’s unrecognized countries.

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