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Bottom Line Up Front

• Europe and the UK forge a pact to protect undersea cables, signaling growing fears of gray-zone sabotage.

• Kenya pushes China to restructure $3.6 billion in railway loans as debt pressures mount.

• Russia escalates its war on Ukraine with record drone strikes even as it completes a major prisoner swap.

• ASEAN responds to new U.S. tariffs by fast-tracking a trade upgrade with China, reshaping regional alliances.

• Central Asia’s Middle Corridor booms as freight reroutes around Russia.

Hey everyone—

Welcome to The Under Report, your weekly intelligence brief about the stories that move the world without making headlines. Like what you're reading? Subscribe and share, also please engage with our sponsors to keep the Under Report rolling.

— Eric

P.S.

The world can be fun and inspiring too. Check out this music video featuring Mongolian Wrestling. (the band is 'The Hu’ a folk metal band from Ulaanbaatar)

1️ | Europe Moves to Guard Undersea Lifelines

What happened: Brussels and London quietly forged a defense pact to secure critical undersea cables after a series of sabotage incidents in the Baltic and North Atlantic regions. Recent damage to Latvian-Swedish fiber optic lines set a dangerous precedent. It's also really hard to attribute an attack on a wire at the bottom of the ocean.(The Times).

Why it matters: Undersea cables carry 95% of global internet traffic and substantial energy flows—making them prime targets. Europe’s new focus signals heightened alert over hybrid warfare threats.

What we’re watching for: Deployment of surveillance and repair vessels in key maritime chokepoints. Potential Russian or Chinese countermeasures or cyber attacks targeting cable-dependent infrastructure. We are also on the lookout for any direct attribution of a cable attack.

2️ | Kenya Navigates Debt Diplomacy with China Over Railway Loans

What happened: Kenya is trying to get China to renegotiate the terms of its substantial loans for the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR), a flagship infrastructure project under China's Belt and Road Initiative. The SGR, which connects the port city of Mombasa to Nairobi, was primarily financed through a $3.6 billion loan from China's Export-Import Bank. Amidst mounting debt pressures, President William Ruto's administration is seeking to restructure these loans to alleviate the financial burden on the country (Reuters).

Why it matters: This project is a Chinese debt-trap in action. The SGR was envisioned to bolster Kenya's economic growth by enhancing transportation efficiency. However, the project's high costs and underwhelming returns have raised concerns about its viability and the country's increasing indebtedness to China. Kenya's efforts to renegotiate the loan terms reflect a broader trend among African nations reassessing their financial engagements with China (The Times).

What we’re watching for: The outcome of Kenya's negotiations with China regarding debt restructuring. If China plays hardball it could signal a move towards aggression. There is the potential for a shift in Kenya's infrastructure financing strategies, including exploring alternative funding sources such as partnerships with the United Arab Emirates. Additionally, the international community's response to Kenya's debt situation and its implications for China's Belt and Road Initiative in Africa will be closely monitored.

3️ | Russia Escalates Aerial Assaults Amidst Historic Prisoner Swap

What happened: Russia doesn't care about ceasefire talks. So it launched its most extensive aerial attack on Ukraine since the war's inception, deploying over 350 drones and at least nine cruise missiles across Ukrainian territory. This massive offensive coincided with the completion of a significant prisoner exchange between the two nations, where each side released 1,000 individuals, marking the largest swap of the conflict to date (Reuters, WSJ).

Why it matters: Russia is fighting from the bottom, saying one thing and doing another. A large-scale humanitarian gesture with an unprecedented military assault brought European leaders to threaten deeper strikes into Russia without the US. The west is losing its patience but without US buy-in Russia can keep talking out of both sides of its mouth. (The Guardian).

What we’re watching for: A European led strike deep into Russia. That would shred peace talks and turn the rest of Europe into a target.

4️ | ASEAN Rallies Against U.S. Tariffs, Deepens Ties with China

What happened: At the recent ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur, member states confronted sweeping U.S. tariff hikes—ranging from 10% on Singaporean goods to 49% on Cambodian exports. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim emphasized the need for a unified ASEAN response, proposing a collective meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump to negotiate these tariffs. Concurrently, ASEAN finalized negotiations with China on an upgraded Free Trade Area agreement, aiming to bolster economic resilience amid global trade tensions (Reuters).

Why it matters: The U.S. tariffs threaten to disrupt Southeast Asia's export-driven economies, prompting ASEAN to seek stronger intra-regional cooperation and alternative partnerships. The upgraded trade deal with China, focusing on digital and green economies, supply chain connectivity, and deeper integration, reflects ASEAN's strategy to diversify its economic ties and reduce reliance on Western markets (Reuters).

What we’re watching for: The effectiveness of ASEAN's collective bargaining with the U.S. and the implementation of the new trade agreement with China. Additionally, the potential for increased regional integration and the impact on global supply chains as ASEAN navigates between major economic powers.

5️ | Middle Corridor Gains Momentum as Trade Reroutes Around Russia

What happened: The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), commonly known as the Middle Corridor, is experiencing a significant surge in freight traffic. In the first nine months of 2024, cargo volume along this route increased by 70%, reaching 2.8 million tons. This huge uptick is largely attributed to the redirection of trade flows away from Russia due to geopolitical tensions and sanctions. (Caspian News).

Why it matters: The Middle Corridor offers a strategic alternative for connecting China and Europe, bypassing Russia and the Suez Canal. Its expensive to change infrastructure and its growing utilization means Moscow's isolation is deepening. Commodities like stability and Russia has been anything but. The corridor's development is also bolstered by significant investments, including a €12 billion commitment from the European Union aimed at enhancing transport and digital connectivity in Central Asia (DGAP).

What we’re watching for: Further infrastructure developments along the corridor, such as port expansions and rail upgrades, which could increase its capacity and efficiency. Additionally, the geopolitical implications of this shift, particularly how it affects Russia's influence in Eurasian trade, will be closely monitored.

Eric’s Tinfoil Hat 🎩  🗨️ Quote this on X

I learned a new term and it’s freaking me out. So now you have to know about it: Ontological Vertigo.

It’s what happens when your fundamental beliefs or 'plausibility structures,’ get shaken so hard that you’re no longer sure what’s real. An institution broke your trust. You lost your faith. You found out your country’s history wasn’t as rosy as you thought. Suddenly, you’re in free fall grabbing onto anything. On the way down, there's a lot of strange beliefs that can seem like solid ground.

This can happen when the world changes rapidly, through technology, war, or economic collapse. This opens the door to conspiracy theory. Or it can happen when your beliefs are actively stripped from you. But gaslighting isn’t just a personal dynamic, it’s a geopolitical strategy.

I came across this while digging into Russian propaganda tactics. (Because I'm fun). Some Russian techniques were built on studying narcissistic personality types. These are people uniquely skilled at bending reality for everyone around them. The idea is simple and terrifying: Get someone to stare into the void until they lose their grip on what’s real. That’s ontological vertigo.

Once the feeling has been triggered it's easy to offer a victim a version of reality that benefits the attacker. We all go through this to some extent. The trick is being mindful of what we cling to when it happens. Finding solid ground and actual truth, isn’t about comfort. It’s about hard, diligent work. And that’s tough, because a lot of people and institutions are more than happy to offer us another trapdoor instead.

About Eric

Eric Czuleger is a journalist and travel writer who has lived and worked in over 47 countries. He holds a masters degree from the University of Oxford and he is completing a National Security degree from the RAND school of public policy. He's the author of You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don’t Exist, and host of the “This Is Not a PsyOp” TikTok channel. 

📚 Liked today’s brief? Dive deeper—check out my book You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don't Exist and explore the world’s unrecognized countries.

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