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Bottom Line Up Front
Burkina Faso expelled the UN’s top official and WFP suspended flights to Solle after an explosion, a sign of shrinking humanitarian space as Sahel violence edges toward Benin and Togo
Hamas agrees to 60-day ceasefire proposal as Israel faces its largest anti-war protests
Protestors met with violence in Serbia as the president vows severe response to the ongoing political movement
Pacific Islands Forum shuts out 21 nations raising questions about China’s influence and regional unity.
Hey everyone—
Welcome to The Under Report, your weekly intelligence brief about the stories that move the world without making headlines.
I started this weekly newsletter to make geopolitics clear and accessible to everyone. We can understand the world without bombastic headlines, partisan moralization, or fear mongering. I'm so glad to have you all along for the ride and I can't wait to grow more.
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— Eric
P.S. You guys know I'm a sucker for new countries.
1| Sahel: Burkina Faso shuts out the UN as violence pushes toward the coast
What happened?
Burkina Faso declared the UN resident coordinator persona non grata on Monday, citing a UN report on child rights violations which called out the use of child soldiers. Days earlier the World Food Program suspended flights to Solle after an explosion near a chartered helicopter. In parallel, Mali detained a French embassy staffer on accusations Paris called unfounded. Meanwhile violence linked to JNIM is straining borders, with Benin and Togo reporting deadly attacks and officials warning of further spillover. (More)
Why it matters
Humanitarian access is narrowing as oversight is curtailed, reducing visibility on civilian harm and constraining aid pipelines. A sustained push south would widen the corridor of insecurity from Mali and Burkina Faso toward the Atlantic, raising risks for Benin, Togo, and eventually Ghana.
What we’re watching
2| Gaza war protests: domestic pressure spikes in Israel
What happened?
Tens of thousands rallied and staged road blockages in Israel demanding a hostage deal and an end to the war, as Hamas told mediators it accepted a 60-day ceasefire framework. Israel has not formally agreed. (More)
Why it matters
Protest energy raises political costs for continued operations without a deal, while any ceasefire contours would reset humanitarian access and market risk across the region.
What we’re watching
3| Serbia: protests turn violent, crackdown talk grows
What happened?
Serbian police used tear gas and crowd-control vehicles to disperse demonstrators in Belgrade after attacks on ruling-party offices. The presidency promised a severe response, while critics allege excessive force. (More)
Why it matters
Escalation risks a harder authoritarian turn that complicates Serbia’s EU path and chills investor sentiment in the Balkans.
What we’re watching
4| Europe on the Trump–Zelensky meetings
What happened?
Trump hosted Zelensky and multiple European leaders in Washington. He said the United States would help Europe provide security guarantees for Ukraine in a peace deal. Zelensky and European leaders signaled support for direct talks with Putin, with many details still unclear. (More)
Why it matters
Europe came in with an organized front. Zelensky was backed by major European leaders pushing for a peace deal with security promises. However without clarity on territory, sanctions, and enforcement, the risk of a frozen conflict stays high.
What we’re watching for:
Concrete text on security guarantees and enforcement mechanisms. What does this actually look like? UN troops, US troops? A third independent country?
Divergences between United States and European red lines on ceasefire sequencing. Russia hasn't stuck to a ceasefire yet, so what about a peace deal?
Check out my book You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don't Exist and explore the world’s unrecognized countries.
5| South Pacific: PIF shuts the door to outside powers
What happened?
The Pacific Islands Forum stuck with a plan to exclude 21 “dialogue partners,” including the United States, China, and Taiwan, from next month’s leaders’ summit in Honiara. Tuvalu criticized the move, Palau called it a missed opportunity. Taiwan stated that this was unfortunate but understandable. (More)
Why it matters:
Keeping partners out limits great-power theater but this also sidelines funding talks when climate and infrastructure needs are acute. The decision spotlights the region’s tightrope between China, Taiwan, and Western donors. They need the, but they don't want to be controlled, or at least look like they're being controlled.
What we’re watching for:
If Honiara hosts side meetings with major powers off-site, just because they're not at the meeting officially doesn't mean they're not at the meeting.
How Palau, Tuvalu, and Marshall Islands coordinate around Taiwan’s potential agenda
Eric's Tin Foil Hat
Every week feels like THE WEEK. That's a problem for trying to assess what is actually going on. What is seen as the most important political summit in a decade will eventually become a footnote, however, once lines on a map are drawn or redrawn, they're very difficult to change. Here's a good way to contextualize wild geopolitical swings: be a historian not a journalist.
Imagine yourself 100 years in the future looking back at this moment. What was the action that moved the needle? While right now it might seem like social or cultural issues, more often then not it is geographic and demographic constraints. As always… When in doubt, zoom out.
About Eric
Eric Czuleger is a journalist and travel writer who has lived and worked in over 47 countries. He holds a masters degree from the University of Oxford and he is completing a National Security degree from the RAND school of public policy. He's the author of You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don’t Exist, and host of the “The_Under_Report” TikTok channel.
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