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Hey everyone—
Welcome to The Under Report, your weekly intelligence brief about the stories that move the world without making headlines.

I started this weekly newsletter to make geopolitics clear and accessible to everyone. We can understand the world without bombastic headlines, partisan moralization, or fear mongering. I'm so glad to have you all along for the ride and I can't wait to grow more.

Share The Under Report if you know someone who would appreciate a weekly intel update. Also, make sure to check out our sponsors to keep the Under Report rolling.

— Eric

P.S. Shout out to my Luddites. Technological change always makes social change.

What happened?
A 6.0-magnitude earthquake in eastern Afghanistan killed more than 1,400 people and injured thousands. Entire villages were flattened, with women and children comprising most of the victims. Rescue efforts are slowed by mountainous terrain and damaged roads (More)

Why does it matter?
The disaster exposes Afghanistan’s dire humanitarian crisis, worsened by aid cuts and Taliban isolation. With hospitals overwhelmed and foreign support hesitant, the quake highlights how political isolation deepens human vulnerability.

What are we looking for?
Whether international donors will mobilize despite Taliban control, how fast aid reaches survivors, and if this disaster alters Afghanistan’s fragile relationship with the global community.

What happened?
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping, calling ties “unprecedentedly high.” The summit included 22 agreements on energy, nuclear power, healthcare, and visa-free travel for Russian citizens. North Korea’s Kim Jong Un also attended, signaling an informal bloc alignment. (More)

Why does it matter?
The meeting strengthens a Russia-China axis aimed at countering Western sanctions and influence. It shows Moscow’s growing reliance on Beijing and signals to Washington and Brussels that global alignments are hardening.

What are we looking for?
Concrete follow-through on pipeline projects, expanded military cooperation, and whether this trilateral photo-op with North Korea leads to tangible joint strategy.

What happened?
Protests over perks for government workers and soldiers (particularly $3,000 monthly housing allowances) erupted nationwide. This was tipped off by the death of a young man caused by security force street traffic. The riot left at least eight people dead. Security forces clashed with students and workers, using tear gas and rubber bullets. Reports say 20 people are missing as unrest spreads across Jakarta, Bandung, and Surabaya. (More)

Why does it matter?
The protests reveal deep anger over inequality and governance failures. Indonesia, a G20 economy and pivotal U.S. partner in Asia, faces serious instability just as global supply chains rely on its nickel and rare earth exports. Moreover, large scale protests have often toppled Indonesian leaders and opened the door for foreign influence.

What are we looking for?
If President Prabowo’s concessions calm tensions, whether more crackdowns risk radicalizing opposition, and how investor confidence responds to civil unrest.=

What happened?
U.S. Africa Command conducted airstrikes on August 30 targeting al-Shabaab, part of escalated counter-terror operations alongside Somali forces. Somali officials report militants have been pushed back from towns in Middle Shabelle after attempted takeovers. (More)

Why does it matter?
Al-Shabaab remains one of al-Qaeda’s most resilient affiliates. Sustained pressure from Somali and U.S. forces is crucial to preventing territorial gains and safeguarding maritime and regional security in the Horn of Africa.

What are we looking for?
Civilian casualty reports, how long Somalia can sustain these offensives, and whether U.S. involvement escalates into larger commitments. Moreover we want to take a look at the various forces who are entering the battle space to gain influence on the Horn of Africa.

What happened?

Denmark’s Foreign Minister summoned the U.S. chargé d’affaires after reports revealed Trump-linked Americans conducted influence operations in Greenland. These included compiling lists of pro- and anti-U.S. Greenlanders to undermine Danish governance (More)

Why does it matter?
Greenland is central to Arctic geopolitics, hosting vital U.S. military assets and untapped natural resources. Any suggestion of U.S. meddling strains NATO trust and risks fueling Greenlandic independence sentiment. Moreover, this shows that the U.S. has not given up on territorial expansionist aims.

What are we looking for?
Danish demands for accountability, U.S. clarifications, and whether this scandal accelerates Greenland’s autonomy movement or prompts NATO debate on Arctic governance. It's also important to remember that just because a couple influence operators were found doesn't mean that there aren't others attempting to continue the mission.

What if Greenland is the canary in the coal mine for a new kind of great power competition? In this format, even allies are fair game for manipulation. Typically the United States has been all about direct engagement rather than quiet subversion. But territorial expansion and hemispheric defense is clearly on the mind of those steering the ship. So, how does this change the dynamic on the ground between allies?

Trust only works if you don't think about it. When trust is broken, information flows slow down and coordination falters. While the United States needs to maintain an Arctic presence, it is not necessarily called to take land by force or soft power. This play fails on many levels. If the U.S. succeeds then all of its allies are wary. If it fails, trust breaks down, information slows, and alliances fray. 

All operations must have a "theory of victory” my question is: what does winning actually look like here?

Eric Czuleger is a journalist and travel writer who has lived and worked in over 47 countries. He holds a masters degree from the University of Oxford and he is completing a National Security degree from the RAND school of public policy. He's the author of You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don’t Exist, and host of the “The_Under_Report” TikTok channel.