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Bottom Line Up Front:

Hey everyone—
Welcome to The Under Report, your weekly intelligence brief about the stories that move the world without making headlines.

I started this weekly newsletter to make geopolitics clear and accessible to everyone. We can understand the world without bombastic headlines, partisan moralization, or fear mongering. I'm so glad to have you all along for the ride and I can't wait to grow more.

Share The Under Report if you know someone who would appreciate a weekly intel update. Also, make sure to check out our sponsors and scroll to the bottom for my tin foil hat.

— Eric

P.S.

Check out this clip of Burkina Faso's new leader meeting Vladimir Putin. Who can tell me the significance of the ribbon on his chest?

P.P.S.

Wearing a ribbon like that without knowing almost got me beaten up in a market in Moldova.

What happened: A leaked Israeli policy paper, confirmed by humanitarian officials and reviewed by Axios, reveals plans to funnel Gaza’s civilian population into a fenced southern “humanitarian zone” along the Egyptian border. The document outlines new Israeli-controlled crossings and logistical containment zones. It is the next notional evolution in a post war strategy.

Why it matters: The plan would effectively force hundreds of thousands into a semi-permanent holding area in Rafah. Thus far, there is no clear political endgame. It's important to note that forced displacement is an international war crime which constitutes ethnic cleansing in the eyes of legal scholars. The report states that this is a move to isolate Hamas, but this pretext has been used for consistent escalation without definition of any end state.

What we’re watching for: How international courts, Egypt (who controls the border crossing), and aid organizations respond. If organized forced displacement begins either under a formal policy or informally. The predevelopment of infrastructure in Rafah. (More)

What happened: A Chinese warship used a military-grade laser to temporarily blind the crew of a German surveillance aircraft flying a mission for the EU’s ASPIDES operation near Yemen. The plane was forced to divert to Djibouti. Germany summoned China’s ambassador, calling the act “completely unacceptable.”

Why it matters: This is a direct escalation in China’s pattern of non-kinetic harassment tactics. (China's not-touching-can't-get-mad strategy). Using directed energy weapons within a contested choke point represents a new level of Chinese aggression. Moreover, fielding this weapon lets everyone in the world know it's capabilities, this is a billboard advertising things to come.

What we’re watching for: What falls out of the meeting between Beijing and Berlin. Whether the EU or NATO revise their rules of engagement to encompass anti-laser and electronic warfare. When (not if) the Chinese use this capability again. (More)

What happened: Sudan’s military government publicly accused the UAE of backing the RSF (Rapid Support Forces) in its civil war both militarily and diplomatically. Khartoum claims Abu Dhabi has blocked condemnations of the RSF at international forums and is pushing for recognition of a parallel rebel government. We've been waiting for an indication of international support for the RSF, now its moving out of the shadows.

Why it matters: This marks a new level of escalation in what was already a Gulf-influenced proxy war. The accusation comes after Sudan tried to take the UAE to the International Court of Justice for supporting what it claims is a genocidal campaign in Darfur.

What we’re watching for: Will this spark open Gulf rivalries in the Sahel? And will the U.S. or EU be forced to pick a side or risk irrelevance in the region? Turkey is has skin in the game here, are they supporting Sudan’s military government or staying quiet? (More)

What happened: Pakistan is quietly developing a new generation of large rocket motors, likely aimed at fielding longer-range ballistic missiles, possibly with intercontinental capability. Meanwhile, China is pressuring Islamabad to cancel a $1.6 billion deal with France for Rafale fighter jets. The reason? Pakistan’s French planes would match India’s fleet risking technical crossover that could expose Chinese-engineered systems used in Pakistan’s JF-17 jets.

Why it matters: Pakistan’s defense doctrine is shifting from regional deterrence toward strategic reach. Maybe it can’t win a direct fight with neighbors but that doesn’t stop it from seeking patronage to extend its sphere of influence. At the same time, Beijing’s behind-the-scenes influence is on full display. China is offering tech, but demanding strategic obedience. If Pakistan backs out of the French deal, it will be seen as bending to China.

What we’re watching for: Test activity in Balochistan, shifts in Pakistan’s fighter jet procurement path, and possible French retaliation in defense tech exports. (More)

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What happened: Captain Ibrahim Traoré, the 36-year-old military ruler of Burkina Faso, has launched a purge of French-aligned military officers, expanded his Russian-trained Presidential Guard, and is pushing for tighter military integration with Mali and Niger. Traoré’s populist anti-colonial rhetoric is gaining traction both in the streets and online. He's also giving tractors to famers, painting himself as a populist, Marxist-leaning leader. Remember, everything comes with strings attached.

Why it matters: A new bloc of military-led regimes is forming across the Sahel. They are hostile to Western intervention, aligned with Moscow, and increasingly coordinated. Traoré is becoming a charismatic leader at the center of the movement (he's already gone to Moscow to kiss the ring). And his popularity across West African youth, particularly on social media, signals the rise of a new style of military populism.

What we’re watching for: Whether a formal alliance is declared between Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger and how ECOWAS or France respond. (More)

Everyone is ignoring the Sahel right now. That’s a mistake and here’s why: A unified bloc of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger with Russia acting as a military engine could lead to a wider regional power grab. Wayne Gretzky once said something along these lines: You don't want to skate to where the puck has been, you want to skate to where it will be. My laptop is rapidly losing power so I don't have time to look up the exact quote. You get it.

The bottom line is this: the future is African. It is the youngest population with the most room for economic and social growth in a globalized and rapidly digitizing world. The price of labor is low, resources are plentiful, and manufacturers of the last decade have ascended the value chain.

Who ever sets the standards benefits from the network effect. In blue water markets like North Africa the golden rule stands: who ever makes the rules gets the gold. The Sahel has the armies, the resources, and potentially the organization to expand influence outwardly. This depends on if they can align, not only internally but with Moscow's orders. Tall order but the West has not exactly showered itself in glory throughout the region.

The US and France tried and failed in the Sahel. Transnational organizations have sprung up and withered or sailed around as ghost ships. NGOs tried to thread the needle of doing good, while doing well. Progress is slow, but dictators can speed up the progress. However, it's always THEIR vision of progress. Let's keep an eye out for who sets the standards.

Eric Czuleger is a journalist and travel writer who has lived and worked in over 47 countries. He holds a masters degree from the University of Oxford and he is completing a National Security degree from the RAND school of public policy. He's the author of You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don’t Exist, and host of the “The Under Report” TikTok channel.

📚 Liked today’s brief? Dive deeper—check out my book You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don't Exist and explore the world’s unrecognized countries.

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