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Hey everyone—
Welcome to The Under Report, your weekly intelligence brief about the stories that move the world without making headlines.

I'm just about to cross the 500 reader mark and I want to thank everyone who has supported my work so far. Paid tiers will be launching soon but I want to make sure that all of my original readers (you) get full access.

That's why I'll be launching a pay-what-you-want year subscription for every subscriber before July 1st. Share the Under Report to lock in the reduced rate.

Thank you so much, it's such a joy to write to you all.

— Eric

P.S. Check out this short doc of the Russian Shadow Fleet.

What happened: Polish and Ukrainian security services uncovered an assassination plot targeting President Volodymyr Zelensky, allegedly involving a Russian-linked sleeper agent in Poland. The attack was reportedly timed to coincide with his visit to Rzeszów Airport and may have involved chemical agents or a sniper's bullet. Bold move while the world looks the other way.

Why it matters: This was a planned assassination of a head of state on NATO territory. It’s a line Russia has not crossed openly—until now. If verified, it could trigger diplomatic and counterintelligence escalation across Eastern Europe. However, my guess is that everyone is too focused on Iran to take meaningful action.

What we’re watching for: NATO’s intelligence coordination response, Poland’s domestic counter-espionage policy shifts, and possible retaliatory action from Kyiv. (More)

What happened: The Russian warship Boikiy escorted two shadow fleet oil tankers—SELVA and SIERRA—through the English Channel. This is crazy. It’s the first time Moscow has deployed naval cover for its sanctions-evading vessels.

Why it matters: Russia is militarizing sanctions evasion in plain view of NATO. Western navies observed but did not intervene. This sets a precedent: Moscow is daring the West to enforce economic restrictions at sea. The more Russia pushes the boundries, the more they will find entry points to exploit.

What we’re watching for: Future armed escorts in chokepoints like the Suez or Bosporus; whether NATO establishes counter-patrols; and legal moves to close maritime enforcement gaps. Hopefully we don't see a standoff, but the potential is there. (More)

What happened: China flew 40 military aircraft near Taiwan on June 18, with 27 jets crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait—the informal boundary separating Chinese and Taiwanese airspace.

Why it matters: China is escalating its “grey zone” pressure tactics. By normalizing these large incursions, Beijing is testing Taiwan’s response readiness while eroding global acceptance of the island’s de facto sovereignty. This is another big that would make headlines in normal times. Since we're not going back to normal times soon, we've got to keep an eye out.

What we’re watching for: Taiwan’s potential military or diplomatic retaliation; increased frequency of joint cyber or naval operations by Beijing; and Japan or the Philippines tightening regional air defense protocols. (More)

What happened: Nine Pacific Island nations met with Chinese leadership in Xiamen this week. The Cook Islands signed a sweeping five-year economic and infrastructure agreement with Beijing—without alerting its primary donor, New Zealand. In response, Wellington froze NZD $18 million in aid. A couple million dollars is peanuts when it comes to international development, but the gesture is huge.

Why it matters: China is turning soft power into hard leverage in the Pacific. For the first time, a Western-aligned Pacific nation faced direct aid retaliation for siding with Beijing. This is a diplomatic realignment—one island at a time.

What we’re watching for: More Pacific nations joining Beijing’s orbit; increased pressure on Australia and NZ to revive regional trust; possible AUKUS escalation in non-military domains like telecom and seabed mining. (More)

What happened: A new joint UN FAO–WFP report (June 16) flagged 13 countries—including Sudan, South Sudan, Mali, and Haiti—as approaching acute food insecurity and possible famine. Ongoing war in Sudan is obstructing aid flows, while climate shocks compound food shortages across the Sahel.

Why it matters: Hunger isn’t just humanitarian—it’s a geopolitical accelerant. In weak states, famine leads to migration, violence, state failure, and foreign intervention. That’s already playing out in the Horn of Africa and West Africa.

What we’re watching for: Whether Gulf states or China offer food-for-influence deals, if mass migration hits Europe, and whether the AU or IGAD can coordinate a regional response. (More)

 Eric’s Tinfoil Hat

There is a rule of thumb in magic.

Make a big move to cover a small move. A flourish of a scarf distracts you from the clasp on your watch coming undone. A snap of the fingers distracts you from your pocket being picked. Sometimes geopolitics is magic. Now, we're all sitting in the front row.

The world is distracted by the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel. This chaos opens a strategic window to push boundaries and break norms. China and Russia are letting no tragedy go to waste.

Russia running an armed vessel through the English channel is big news that has gone unnoticed. The US pivoted resources to the Indo-Pacific but that's not stopping China from expanding its influence and threatening Taiwan. The American military cannot be everywhere at once and recent events make it clear that global competitors are ready to take advantage of a singular focus.

When big moves are made, look for the little ones they cover.

Eric Czuleger is a journalist and travel writer who has lived and worked in over 47 countries. He holds a masters degree from the University of Oxford and he is completing a National Security degree from the RAND school of public policy. He's the author of You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don’t Exist, and host of the “The_Under_Report” TikTok channel.

📚 Liked today’s brief? Dive deeper—check out my book You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don't Exist and explore the world’s unrecognized countries.

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