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Bottom Line Up Front

• Paris blows Moscow’s cover, blaming infrastructure damage on Russian Hackers

• Paramilitary attacks Port Sudan, endangering Red Sea shipping

• New Zealand and the Philippines forge closer military ties

• Pakistan calls “act of war” as India ramps up hydropower in Kashmir

• Chile sides with China and Argentina moves west as the battle for lithium heats up

Hey everyone—
Welcome to The Under Report, your weekly intelligence brief about the stories that move the world without making headlines. Every piece of intelligence should answer this question: Why should we care? 

Meaningless world events can seem like operas: a politician threatens their opponent with jail. Globe shifting news might be boring: Sea temperatures raise by one degree. Ultimately, as an analysts our job is to determine why we should care while letting the rest of the noise fall away.

As always, support our sponsors, every time you engage with them you keep independent intel alive! Also, scroll to the bottom for my tin foil hat of the week.
— Eric

P.S. If you like Wordle and international trade… this game is for you.

1 | France Names and Shames Russia’s Hackers  

For the first time ever, France publicly fingered the GRU (Russian Intelligence) for hacking ministries, defense firms and even the Paris 2024 Olympics. Foreign‑ministry officials called the operations “unacceptable” and hinted at sanctions.

Why it matters: The EU usually whispers about cyber intrusions. Admitting to a successful attack and attributing it to Moscow says two things: First it tells the public that critical infrastructure can be affected by adversaries. This is important in the wake of the European power outage last week. Second, it sets up a tripwire for Russia. If Moscow overplays its hand the EU has cause to act. Currently, France is threatening enhanced sanctions, but this could escalate.

What we're watching for: Arrests of Russian assets working in the EU. More explicit attributions, joint counter‑hacking cells, and whether Moscow retaliates in kind.

2 | Port Sudan Drone Strikes Heats up the Red Sea

Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (paramilitary attempting to take over Sudan) used armed drones to torch fuel tanks and a military base in government‑held Port Sudan. This is their first strike on the Red Sea hub after taking over Sudanese oil fields. It's a big deal. Not only does this disrupt shipping in the already contested space of the Red Sea, but the port is Sudan’s aid artery and an evacuation route of foreigners.

Why it matters: The Rapid Support Forces have already taken significant share of Sudanese oil production and now they're disrupting a key port. It was a regional issue before, affecting Ethiopia and Egypt. Now that they can strike the Red Sea, its a global problem.

What we're watching for: Who supplied the RSF drones (Libya? Gulf states? black market?), any Egyptian naval moves, and evidence of RSF setting up coastal launch pads.

3 | Philippines + New Zealand = Bloc Party

Manila and Wellington inked their first Visiting Forces Agreement, letting troops train and deploy on each other’s turf. For NZ it’s an Indo‑Pacific debut; for the Philippines it’s alliance diversification beyond the U.S. & Australia. This comes at a time that China's maritime militia has been ramping up attacks on Filipino fishing vessels and reaching outward to dominate the sea.

Why it matters: The Philippines is equal parts shield and dagger against China, and Beijing knows it. New Zealand has been a quiet military partner in the wider western alliance but it appears this is changing in the creation of a new Indo-Pacific Bloc.

What we're watching for: Senate ratification in Manila and joint drills. We should also keep an eye on what these drills look like. Are they defending fishing vessels or the mainland?

4 | India Flexes Water Superiority on Pakistan

For the first time since the Indus Waters Treaty of the 1960s New Delhi has begun “reservoir‑flushing” hydropower plants in Indian‑held Kashmir. The sediment‑clearing will boost power output but, more importantly, shows New Delhi acting without notifying Islamabad—a line the treaty once forbade. This sends a clear signal to Pakistan that India can manipulate the Indus River and they are creating the capacity to do so for the long term.

Why it matters: Water is Pakistan’s existential keystone. Today’s maintenance could morph into bigger redesigns that let India hold back flow in future conflicts.  Islamabad brands it an “act of war” and is prepping legal action at The Hague.

What we're watching: Whether India repeats the flush at upstream projects, any Pakistani moves to the International Court, and how China (up‑river on the Indus system) positions itself.

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5 | Tug-of-War in the Lithium Triangle

Argentina’s state energy giant YPF inked a deal with Israel’s start‑up XtraLit to pilot direct‑lithium‑extraction (DLE) in the salt flats of Salta and Catamarca—Buenos Aires’ first major move away from slow evaporation ponds. Across the Andes, Chile’s flagship lithium venture—state miner Codelco partnering with SQM to triple Atacama output—cleared domestic antitrust but still sits in limbo waiting for China’s regulatory green light. Beijing holds a 20 % stake in SQM and dominates global cathode processing, meaning Santiago can’t close its deal without that approval .

Why it matters: The two largest producers in the Lithium Triangle are now pulling in opposite directions. Argentina is moving towards Western EV makers eager to diversify away from Chinese supply. Meanwhile, Chile’s dependence on Chinese capital gives Beijing hidden choke‑point on critical battery‑metal flows.

What we're watching: Increased lithium production from Argentina over Chile. Foreign direct investment from the east going to Chile or the west going to Argentina.

Eric’s Tinfoil Hat 🎩 

The Red Sea is the world's most critical flashpoint right now. From the Houthi rebels launching missiles at international ships and Russian ghost fleets smuggling oil Sudanese paramilitaries striking ports and the Egyptian navy taking notice there is a remarkable build up of tension in this region. But the problem is worse than that:

In the Red Sea there is little alignment, lots of conflict and trillions of dollars worth of goods and energy in small space. This is how accidents happen. This is how a regional conflict goes global.

Houthis aren't coordinating with Somalis and Egyptians don't have a direct line to Sudanese paramilitaries. Meanwhile the world's largest navies are parked outside the Red Sea protecting the energy and goods that keep the global economy afloat.

Bottom line: Any small conflict fought in the Red Sea becomes a big conflict that affects everyone. Let's hope the region can find a stable equilibrium before the globe starts spinning off its axis.

About Eric

Eric Czuleger is a journalist and travel writer who has lived and worked in over 47 countries. He holds a masters degree from the University of Oxford and he is completing a National Security degree from the RAND school of public policy. He's the author of You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don’t Exist, and host of the “This Is Not a PsyOp” TikTok channel. 

📚 Liked today’s brief? Dive deeper—check out my book You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don't Exist and explore the world’s unrecognized countries.

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