Somaliland's Gambit: Reshaping the Horn of Africa

Bottom Line Up Front

1. Somaliland is a partially recognized separatist movement that occupies the northern half of the Horn of Africa

2. The Somaliland government in Hargeisa has proved more stable than the Somali government in Mogadishu

3. The US has made overtures towards recognizing Somaliland's independence

4. This opens the door to hosting military and infrastructure projects on a more stable portion of the Horn of Africa

5. It could also kick off a new civil war

What’s Happening: The self-declared Republic of Somaliland – which broke from Somalia in 1991 – is looking for increased recognition by the US. Reports in late 2024 suggested the incoming Trump administration was “poised to recognize Somaliland,” which could spur other allies to follow. This is a region near and dear to my heart after living in Hargeisa during research for my book You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don't Exist. While I monitor Somaliland closely, a move to recognition could have massive implications. Here's why it matters:

Somaliland has been seen as a bastion of relative stability on the Horn of Africa. Federal Somalia has experienced recent uptick activity from the terrorist group Al-Shabaab. Moreover, it appears there is evidence of collaboration between them and the Houthi Rebels in Yemen. Working together, both groups could threaten traffic into the Red Sea. Since around one third of global goods and 60 percent of the world’s energy supply passes between Somalia and Yemen, a coordinated attack could introduce more chaos to an already contentious global economy. It's not good for anyone. While the US needs to maintain a presence in Somalia to ensure this doesn't happen, recognition of Somaliland as a Sovereign nation could ignite a civil war between Mogadishu and Hargeisa.

Why It Matters: Somaliland’s quest for recognition matters because success could reshape the Horn of Africa. Recognition would reward its relative stability and democratic governance (rated “partly free” by Freedom House, which is actually really good compared to its neighbors). A recognized Somaliland could host military bases or infrastructure projects, since currently, most of them are hosted in neighboring Djibouti. Moreover, access to the Red Sea port of Berbera could be a gold mine because it connects directly to huge and relatively stable markets like Kenya and Ethiopia.

What we're watching for:

• Diplomatic Breakthroughs: Any country formally recognizing Somaliland or opening a new liaison office (All eyes on the State Department opening an embassy). Ethiopia’s next steps on the Berbera port deal will be an early indicator of wider acceptance or retreat .

• Somalia-Somaliland Talks: Hargeisa and Mogadishu's dialogue brokedown last year. Recognition by a power player could drive them back to the negotiating table. 

• Regional Reactions: The African Union is showing greater capability and power projection these days but East African neighbors are the most important. Kenya and Djibouti have hinted at alignment but so far stopped short of recognition.

• Great Power Involvement: Washington, Beijing, or Gulf states. For instance, a U.S. security partnership short of recognition, or China courting Hargeisa to counter a U.S.-Somaliland tie-up, would illustrate Somaliland’s growing strategic value.

Parting shot: While I was living in Hargeisa I was driving around with my fixer on the way to buy couches (read the book to find out why). He asked me "Do you know what I call the United States?” I told him that I didn’t know what he called the United States. He said, “I call you the big shoes, because I can always hear you coming.”