Bottom Line Up Front

• Iran's main shipping artery crippled during nuclear talks. Coincidence or no?

• Nuclear armed India and Pakistan escalate tensions rapidly after an attack in disputed Kashmir region

• Sudan’s civil war sets warning lights ablaze as refugees cross borders and fighters claim oil fields

• Russia signs security deals with mineral rich Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso

• An unexplained event took out the power in a chunk of Western Europe

Hey everyone—
Welcome to The Under Report, your weekly intelligence brief about the stories that move the world without making headlines. Make sure you scroll to the bottom for my Tinfoil Hat where I determine if we should be looking for horses or zebras every time something explodes.

— Eric

P.S. Here's a neat free tool for your own open source research.

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1 | Bandar Abbas Blast Freezes 40 Percent of Iran’s Trade

A cache of sodium perchlorate—solid-fuel rocket oxidizer —exploded Iran’s Bandar Abbas port on Saturday, killing around 70 and injuring some 1,200. Fires are out, but officials say full operations are at least 10 days away. It bears mentioning that the explosion occurred at the same time as the US and Iran engage in nuclear talks in Oman. Initial reports blame the explosion on carelessness but Supreme Leader Khamenei ordered a probe into “negligence or sabotage.”

Why it matters: Bandar Abbas is Iran's jugular vein. It sits on the entrance to the Red Sea (The Straight of Hormuz) as well as a naval base. Even a short shutdown nudges tanker insurance and Gulf freight rates; proof of sabotage could invite payback.

What we're watching for: Speed of port restart, and whether Iran hints claims foul play. Attacks like this are difficult to attribute by their very nature. If Iran finds a smoking gun there will be retaliation.

2 | Kashmir Slips Toward the Edge

Delhi air-lifted 5,000 soldiers after last week’s tourist-bus bombing (26 dead). India has frozen Pakistani visas ahead of pilgrimage season and officially suspended Indus Water Treaty. It can't be overstated how important this treaty is. Even though India and Pakistan have gone to war multiple times, the treaty has protected water flowing into Pakistan. This supports Pakistani agriculture and electrical production. In response, Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian carriers, expelled seven diplomats, and warned the UN of an “imminent incursion.” This is an incredibly dangerous moment for two nuclear armed powers.

Why it matters: Kashmir is a flashpoint for regional rivals but also international allies. The US is allied with Pakistan and Russia remains in India's corner. Any escalation could trigger a tit-for-tat spiral.

What we're watching for: Who were the attackers? If they are non-state actors, Pakistan has some room to maneuver, but if they're connected to Islamabad there will be hell to pay. We also need to keep our eye on if Delhi follows through on its water threats. The international community will likely step in, but who and how fast matters a lot.

3 | Sudan’s War Leaks Across Borders

Sudan’s civil war threatens tentative stability in East Africa. UNHCR says 18 thousand Sudanese civilians have crossed into South Sudan’s Upper Nile State since March, fleeing as paramilitaries and other fighters take over oil fields. Smaller armed groups have also slipped across the border into Western Ethiopia. To make matters worse the World Food Program warns that a $698 million funding gap could force it to suspend rations inside Sudan by June. This means more outflows of refugees looking for support in an ever more chaotic region.

Why it matters: South Sudan earns 70 percent of state revenue from oil which is now in the control of paramilitaries. Disruption could crush Juba’s budget pushing migrants toward Libya and even Europe by late 2025. Sudan will have to fight for their oil, but red lights are flashing for regional chaos unless neighbors get involved.

What we're watching for: Satellite proof of armed groups fixing bases near pipelines, African Union emergency meetings, and signs Egypt, Eritrea or Ethiopia move from covert help to overt action.

4 | Russia Crowns Itself Security Patron of Sahara Nations

There are probably a lot of sunburnt Russians hanging out in the Sahara right now. With U.S. and French troops gone, Moscow’s re-branded “Africa Corps” (formerly Wagner Group) is providing weapons and instructors to the governments in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso. A joint training roadmap was presented in Niger on 23 April and social media shows airpower dropped into Mali. Gunships are expensive to move and maintain, that means that Moscow sees it as a good investment. There's a not-so-silent struggle for African dominance right now and Russia is sparing no expense.

Why it matters Everyone is making 'security-for-minerals’ plays right now and Russia is no different. The fact that The US and France got kicked out of the Sahara makes them the only game in town. If they play their cards right they could swap some military drones for mining concessions like uranium, gold, and rare earths.

What we're watching: More weapons and sunburnt Russians showing up in Niger. Social media posts geolocating Africa Corps camps, and whether Nigeria or Ghana push back against their regional neighbors.

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5 | Southern Europe Grid Blackout Reveals a Fragile Circuit

Europe plunges into darkness. A sudden 15-GW drop on the France–Spain interconnector unplugged the Iberian Peninsula from Europe's grid. The jolt blacked out Spain, Portugal and parts of southern France. Operators REE (Spain) and REN (Portugal) blame a rare atmospheric oscillation that made high-voltage lines sway, tripping automatic shutdowns. Forensics continue; no cyber or solar fingerprints have surfaced.

Why it matters Europe’s power network runs in tight synchrony—one jolt can cascade continent-wide. The outage exposes climate-linked stress points just as grids juggle war-time shortages, green-energy swings, and hacker probes. If the “atmospheric” theory collapses, the blackout flags deeper systemic risk heading into a high-demand summer.

Watching Final reports + raw frequency telemetry, any NATO cyber advisories, and EU calls to harden cross-border lines before the hot season.

Eric’s Tinfoil Hat 🎩 

Doctors say “when you hear hoofbeats, think horses, not zebras.” Intelligence analysts still need to look for stripes. A port packed with missile fuel detonates hours after a new round of U.S.–Iran nuclear talks—horse or zebra? Officially it’s bad storage, but Tehran’s own sabotage probe keeps the conspiracy window ajar.

Then came Europe's blackout. The grid operator blames an atmospheric issue, stressing no cyber fingerprints so far. Horse logic fits—grids are fragile — and if a cyberattack just took out the power for millions, you'd likely not want to say as much right away. I'm withholding judgement on this one, but theres a real lesson to learn here. It took less than three hours for looting and chaos to spread.

Maybe it was an atmospheric event, maybe it was sabotage. Either way Europe will need to harden its grid and remind its people to keep supplies on hand.

About Eric

Eric Czuleger is a journalist and travel writer who has lived and worked in over 47 countries. He holds a masters degree from the University of Oxford and he is completing a National Security degree from the RAND School of Public Policy. He's the author of You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don’t Exist, and host of the “This Is Not a PsyOp” TikTok channel. 

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