Bottom Line Up Front

• Conflict minerals used to be about combustion, now they're about computing

• China commands most mining and nearly all processing of rare earths

• Ukraine’s vast deposits could finance its reconstruction if Kiev retains control

• Greenland’s neodymium-rich Kvanefjeld makes it a prize in the Arctic

• The Democratic Republic of Congo has tons of rare earths and cobalt but getting it requires both blood and treasure

Hey everyone—
Welcome back to The Under Report, your weekly intelligence brief about the stories that move the world without making headlines. Welcome to the new subscribers! I'll be writing twice a week, a short report on Tuesdays and a deep dive long read on Thursdays. Today we're diving deep into rare earths and the minerals which build the digital world.

Complete transparency: I had no clue what rare earths or these other elements did previous to writing this piece. If asked, I'd wave my hand and say something about cellphones. Technically I would be right, but also missing the point.

Technology and conflict are eternal dance partners. When one changes step the other follows. We've arrived in a digital world from an industrialized planet, and it’s built on 17 unpronounceable elements. The question is: are they worth fighting and dying for? Moreover, what are our countries willing to do to get a secure supply?
— Eric

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Conflict Minerals: From Combustion to Computation

‘What if they don't need oil?'

I asked my boss, putting on the world-weary face of a seasoned intelligence analyst. I was a trainee and I hadn’t yet realized that in the world of open source intelligence there were dumb questions.

'Every country in the world needs oil. You should go and find out why that was the wrong question to ask.'

The brusque reply hit me square between the eyes before we moved onto smarter questions. I hadn't learned a simple fact about conflict which would become abundantly clear throughout my time writing about it. Conflict happens because humans have infinite appetites in a world of finite resources. Nations must pull things out of the ground to secure a future for their people, but sometimes, they want to dig for the same prize.

While I was growing up, this prize was oil.

From Middle Eastern wars to gas station lines, the world's most traded commodity wasn’t just fuel—it was the axis of global power. The ability to combust and create was in the hands of whoever controlled the crude. It still is, but there is a new competitor on the horizon. Strategic focus is shifting. Fossil fuels industrialized the world, but rare earths, cobalt, and lithium digitize it. Whoever snaps up the supply of rare earths and directs their refinement can lead the world.

But what are they in the first place?

17 Elements in A Handful of Dust

Rare earth elements—17 in total—aren’t as rare as their name suggests. They're everywhere. If you picked up some dirt, you'd likely be holding at least a couple of elements about which battle plans are already drawn. While they might be common, they aren't concentrated. This makes mining them impossible in all but a few of places on the globe. These areas are making headlines because rare earths are in everything that makes the digital world work.

17 rare earths—most of them the lanthanides—sit in a sweet spot of the periodic table where their electron arrangement confers unusually strong, stable magnetism and vivid optical emission. That’s why the ultra-compact speakers and vibration motors in your phone and laptop rely on neodymium-based magnets, while europium and terbium phosphors give high-definition screens their eye-popping reds and greens. Our appetite for punchy color, thumping bass, and always-on connectivity is built—quite literally—on this chemistry.

The demand for digital products was the starting gun in the race for rare earths. But the arrival of electric vehicles put the world in a dead heat. By 2030, over 125 million electric vehicles could be on the road, each one dependent on lithium, cobalt, and, you guessed it… rare earths.

So who has them?

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China's Clever Monopoly

China dominates the supply chain, accounting for 60% of mining and 90% of processing capacity. Even if ores are mined elsewhere, they often end up in China for refinement. This near-monopoly gives Beijing immense leverage. In 2010, a diplomatic clash prompted China to halt rare earth exports to Japan, sending prices for digital goods soaring.

China protects it's refining capabilities so jealously that they launched a psychological operation to stop production from entering Texas. In 2022, a Beijing-backed influence network spammed Facebook, Twitter, and local forums with fake Texan “activists” claiming a new rare-earth refinery would dump radioactive waste in their backyard. (It wouldn't). They urged residents to rally against the Pentagon funded plant. The campaign fizzled, but the fight continued.

More recently China has begun to weaponize its mineral dominance in response to US tariffs. This has sent Western nations scrambling to diversify supply chains, but China’s strategic head start leaves the rest of the world playing catch-up. Since rare earths are squarely within Beijing's sphere of influence, great powers are left searching for supply from Eastern Europe and the Arctic to deep in the Congo.

Ukraine: Lithium and the New Battleground

Ukraine holds 22 of the 34 minerals the EU considers essential, including graphite, manganese, and rare earths. Lithium, sometimes called “white gold,” is at the forefront. Before Russia’s 2022 invasion, few realized Ukraine’s lithium potential. The Shevchenkivske deposit alone holds an estimated 13.8 million tonnes of lithium ore (enough for 100 billion smartphones) while other major sites remain under explored.

The war disrupted mining projects and turned some deposits into conflict zones. Weirdly this has made Ukraine’s mineral wealth more valuable. Kiev has proposed “minerals for security” deals, using future revenues from state-owned resources to fund reconstruction in exchange for security guarantees and investment. If Ukraine’s lithium can be integrated into Europe’s battery supply chain, it could reduce reliance on imports—particularly from China—and bolster European energy independence. However, a lot of this depends on western support for an end game in the Russo-Ukraine War.

But a mineral deal in Ukraine friendly to the west is no magic bullet.

Infrastructure must be rebuilt, security established, and private investors courted. In ideal circumstances the west could have a supply of lithium and rare earths functioning in a couple of years, but there are rarely ideal circumstances on the doorstep of the Russian Federation. Moreover, there are fractures between the US and its allies. Nowhere is this more apparent than the conflict between Denmark and the US over Greenland.

Shockingly, Greenland has an enormous supply of rare earths.

Greenland: Neodymium at the Arctic Frontier

Greenland’s Kvanefjeld site alone could supply 15% of the world’s rare earth needs. Rich in neodymium and other elements crucial for EV motors and wind turbines, Greenland’s resources are a strategic game-changer. But Kvanefjeld is laced with uranium, making it politically contentious. Greenland’s government initially banned uranium mining, halting the project, but economic pressures, elections, and offers of annexation by the United States might change the calculus on the ground.

Both China and the United States have taken notice. Shenghe Resources, a Chinese firm, holds a significant stake in Kvanefjeld, while the U.S. signed agreements to cooperate on critical mineral development. Greenland’s potential to provide a non-Chinese supply of rare earths is vital for the West. However, local Inuit communities remain divided. Many fear environmental damage, while others see mining as a path to financial independence.

Greenland has a population just shy of 60 thousand people which gives it less clout on the global political stage. But giving western nations a chance to break their reliance on China is an incredible opportunity rarely provided to small countries. For now, the question of Greenland's rare earth supply remains with its people. However, as the value of these minerals climbs great powers will likely ramp up pressure to extract resources.

The chessboard between the US and China in the Congo has already showed willingness to fight for resources.

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The Congolese Chessboard

In early 2024, Rwanda-backed M-23 rebels overran the eastern portion of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. They took over the Rubaya mining zone, a cluster of pits that ships an estimated 15 percent of global tantalum and began taxing every bag of shipped ore, making them a tidy sum of around $800 thousand a month. The DRC responded by mobilizing its armed forces descending the region into conflict over minerals once again.

Leaving no tragedy to go to waste, the US and China have stepped in each taking sides to vie for a cut of the minerals in the Congo. Former President and (likely) Chinese asset Joseph Kabila recently reappeared in Goma, stating that he would broker a peace deal with the M-23 rebels (who he likely supports). Meanwhile, Erik Prince, Former CEO of Blackwater is negotiating a deal to "secure-and-tax” the mineral mines in Eastern Congo on behalf of the United States.

The DRC still supplies more than four-fifths of the planet’s cobalt and a significant portion of rare earths. Chinese firms dominate the mega-mines and refineries, but the outcome of this conflict has the ability to to loosen that grip. The situation is currently developing in Eastern Congo, but it’s clear that wealth from the minerals will likely go to whichever great power plays their hand the best rather than the people of the DRC.

Finite Resources, Infinite Appetites, and the Right Question

"What if they don't need oil?”

I realized that my question was stupid after a bit more research. Every country needs oil. The real question that I needed to ask is the same one I have about rare earths and the minerals that make the digital world.

"What are we willing to do for them?"

Looking at the headlines, great powers are willing to profiteer off of wars, bully smaller nations, and take sides in conflicts of convenience. As an analyst and a journalist it’s not for me to make a moral judgement on this. My job is to report the step change in the dance between conflict and technology. Rare earths will make headlines and markets in the future, but the fight for them will make battlefields and back-alley deals.

That was a big story… here's a soothing map.

About Eric

Eric Czuleger is a journalist and travel writer who has lived and worked in over 47 countries. He holds a masters degree from the University of Oxford and he is completing a National Security degree from the RAND school of public policy. He's the author of You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don’t Exist.

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