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This is the Under Report, your weekly brief intel brief. There are hurricanes on the horizon and we have to find the butterflies flapping their wings who are responsible. That means looking at stories that don't make headlines.

-Eric

P.S.

Read my Tinfoil Hat at the end for a theory on Somaliland and Gaza. Also buy my book if you like books.

Bottom Line Up Front:

• Asia has been rocked by US economic policy, so China is turning on the charm

• Finland is bringing landmines back into vogue

• Ecuador might become Washington’s new best friend in Latin America

• The US and Israel are trying to move Gaza to Africa

Four Stories We're Monitoring

China Gaslights it Neighbors with Sticks and Carrots

China is in a toxic relationship with its near abroad, but running hot and cold might be the winning strategy. Xi Jin Ping is visiting Vietnam and Malaysia after both were hit by crushing tariffs. This is a great way to fill in the diplomatic negative space left by the United States. But at the same time, China remains aggressive on the seas. Beijing's maritime militia continues to ram Philippine and Vietnamese fishing boats, while China seeks to enforce new laws beyond its economic zone. This mix of diplomacy, lawfare, and gray zone competition seems to be the Chinese tool box these days. 

Why this matters: China wants to win where the US has lost and that means diplomatic visits to economies affected by the new administration. But even while on a charm offensive, China is reminding its neighbors that escalation is always an option.

 What we're watching for: More aggression at sea and more Chinese charm in Asian capitals smarting from tariffs.

Finland Brings Back Landmines

Finland is dropping out of the Ottawa Treaty. This is an international agreement which bans the production, proliferation, use, or stockpiling of landmines. This is a bad sign. Finland has a long land border with Russia and landmines are great at making sure that no one crosses into your country without exploding. With the rollback of the US security umbrella from Europe, nations closest to Russian aggression are revamping their self-defense capabilities. It appears this might be the beginning of a trend with Poland and the Baltics following close behind.

Why this matters: NATO’s eastern flank is bracing for Russia. Treaties are nice — but in the end a piece of paper doesn't stop an invasion. Landmines slow them down.

What we're watching for: Defense contracts for mines, self-destruct clauses as diplomatic fig leaves, and NATO quietly adjusting its doctrine. 

Ecuador’s Quiet Pivot to the Right (and North)

Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa is forging a weird centrist-left coalition at home and cozying up to the Trump White House abroad. Moreover he's working with former Blackwater head Erik Prince for security investment. Noboa's moves align with cracking down on cartels, flirting with U.S. military, and establishing Quito as a new foothold for D.C. Ecuador is just coming out of a period of mass unrest which makes this a good time to centralize power under the guise of cracking down on drug gangs.

Why this matters: This could mark the beginning of a regional realignment with the United States and the creation of a sustained troop presence in the country.

What we're watching for: If Noboa wins the upcoming election, military and trade deals are on the horizon.

African Nations Reject US Resettlement Plan for Gazans

In late 2024, US and Israeli officials floated the idea of relocating Palestinians from Gaza to parts of East Africa. Sudan publicly denounced the proposal, Somalia called it destabilizing, and Somaliland refused to comment. Despite being denied or dismissed, the fact that this plan was circulated at all is telling. It's presence in the press indicates that it is likely still being shopped around.

Why this matters: The very act of proposing a mass population transfer undermines norms set after WWII. It also signals how far traditional red lines are being pushed in Middle East diplomacy and refugee policy.

What we’re watching for: Talks with additional African nations who might be interested in exploring a deal. Also watch if right-aligned governments in Africa shift tone under pressure or incentive. If this plan was Plan A, what’s Plan B?

Eric's Tinfoil Hat
Is a 'recognition’ for 'refugees’ deal possible? Somaliland is aiming for recognition by the United States and they did not publicly rebuke the resettlement offer. The fact that Somaliland was approached directly indicates that the autonomous area of Somalia is being treated as an individual political actor. I think this deal is unlikely but I wouldn't be surprised if its been discussed.