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Bottom Line Up Front

• Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso’s military leadership expelled France and the United States leaving a power vacuum which China and Russia are moving to fill

• Beijing's strategy focuses on economics supporting regimes through loans and infrastructure development projects

• Russia brings weapons, soldiers, and training with a re-branded Wagner Group, known as Africa Corps

• Both China and Russia align around anti-western solidarity and aim at keeping the US and France out of the region

• The pivot towards Beijing and Moscow has the potential to weaken counter‑terrorism and aid efforts and increase instability

Hey everyone,

Welcome to The Under Report, your weekly intelligence brief about the stories that move the world without making headlines. For today's deep dive we're looking at Russian and Chinese competition over the Sahel (the southern edge of the Sahara). The chessboard is larger than Ukraine and Taiwan and everything affects everything. Thats why we’re taking a look at China and Russia in Africa. As always, we only see the bigger picture by zooming out.

Also! Please engage with our sponsors to keep independent intel alive. Also scroll to the end for my tin foil hat.
— Eric

P.S. Listen to Tuareg Blues to hear the Sahara.

1. Western Powers Expelled: The Exit of France and the US

Following a rash of coup d’états in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso the new military leadership demanded the departure of Western troops. France formally ended operations after nearly eight years, withdrawing roughly 2,500 soldiers and closing key bases in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. Meanwhile, Niger’s ordered all US personnel, (about 1,100 troops and drone operators) to leave. While these relationships were forged as counter-terrorism operations, they were also seen as Western imperialism. However, troop expulsions and base closures created a security vacuum that China and Russia were more than willing to fill.

2. Economic Engagement: Beijing’s Investment‑First Approach 

China has deepened its economic ties with the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, by financing energy projects, mining concessions, and transport infrastructure. State‑owned enterprises such as the China National Petroleum Corporation advanced a $400 million prepayment oil deal with Niger in April 2024, shoring up the military government’s fiscal position and cementing Beijing’s reputation as a reliable, no‑strings partner (spoiler alert, there are always strings attached). Beyond hydrocarbons, Chinese firms have backed solar power plants in Mali and uranium exploration in Niger, leveraging their willingness to engage with military regimes.

Beijing’s strategy is calibrated for the long run. While Western investment retreated due to poor governance and human‑rights conditions, China could fill the gap with concessional loans and turnkey projects. These promise visible, short‑term gains for local leaders. Strongmen love cutting the ribbons on projects they didn't build. For Beijing this debt-trap infrastructure‑led model is aimed at keeping the Southern Sahara's elite aligned with China. It’s working.

3. Security and Military Dynamics: Moscow’s Wagner Footprint 

Russia is taking a different strategy where might makes right. Moscow is delivering security via private military companies (PMCs) that have been operational in the region for decades. The Wagner Group (now Africa Corps) has an estimated at 1,000–1,500 fighters on the Malian front to lend “unconditional” counter‑insurgency support (spoiler alert: there are always conditions). The PMCs embed alongside national armies to train troops, conduct operations, and provide regime security, while making sure they know their patronage is coming from Moscow.

In April 2025, Russia pledged to arm and train a planned 5,000‑strong AES joint force, formalizing its security role and challenging Western counter‑terrorism missions. These overtures accelerated after Western forces withdrew, creating an opening that Moscow exploited through rapid deployments and visible partnerships with AES leadership. While China entrenches regional power through the pocketbook, Russia is more than happy to supply the lethal force.

4. Soft Power and Diplomatic Outreach 

Beyond infrastructure loans and battlefield auxiliaries, Beijing and Moscow deploy distinct forms of soft power. China promotes Confucius Institutes and scholarship programs aimed at building pro‑Beijing elites across Sahelian capitals. Cultural centers in Bamako and Niamey host language classes, while thousands of Sahelian students study in China on government scholarships, fostering enduring personal networks.

Meanwhile, Russia’s diplomatic pitch is more transactional: “anti‑Western solidarity.” At an April 2025 summit in Moscow, AES foreign ministers framed their partnership as a stand against neocolonialism, reinforcing narratives of shared struggle and sovereign choice. State‑sponsored media from both powers amplify these messages, portraying Beijing and Moscow as champions of African autonomy.

5. Impact on Regional Security Architecture

The interplay of Chinese economic entrenchment and Russian security backing reshapes the Sahel’s broader security framework. The AES which was formed by military regimes in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso after coups has leveraged these partnerships to distance itself from the Economic Community of West Africa (ECOWAS). This realignment complicates international counter‑insurgency and humanitarian efforts.

Furthermore, the influx of Chinese weapons—116 infantry carriers and six assault vehicles delivered to Burkina Faso in 2024—fills gaps left by departing French stockpiles. But without the training and maintenance frameworks that Western forces provided, they may be armed but lacking operational capabilities. Meanwhile, Wagner’s expanding footprint brings allegations of human‑rights abuses.

6. Risks and Emerging Fault Lines

While both powers benefit from short‑term gains, their approaches sow potential instability. Chinese debt leverage risks fueling anti‑Beijing sentiment if projects plateau or loans become unsustainable. Russia’s reliance on PMCs provokes human‑rights scrutiny and may entangle AES regimes in reputational costs if abuses persist. Moreover, divergent interests could clash: Beijing prizes regional stability for investment security, whereas Moscow may tolerate low‑level conflict to justify its security contracts.

There’s nothing left to do here but wait and see if Russia and China can create turn key stability in the Sahel or they just unleash a new kind of chaos.

Eric’s Tinfoil Hat 🎩 

There's a new scramble for Africa that has been silently raging for years. Superpowers are fighting for resources, markets and manpower on the continent. In the most valuable real estate, like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger this is a zero-sum game. That means, when one power wins, the other loses.

I've spent enough time in Africa to know that saying you have been to the continent is like saying I've been to Earth. The diversity can't be overstated. Its a collision of languages and cultures in sprawling metropolises and the claustrophobia of being a single person under an open desert sky. It's bone crushing poverty next door to gilded luxury separated by a fence built a century before. Africa, in very real terms, is the future.

It is by far and away the youngest continent with the median age only 19 years old. The African population continues to boom as development increases. Moreover, it is rapidly becoming the epicenter of mineral wealth as the global appetite for green energy increases. All of these are equal part blessing and curse.

When something has great value in a globalized world the first mover usually has the advantage. In the case of the Sahel, the first mover usually comes with an army, a blank check, or both. Borders and regimes are details to anyone sufficiently motivated to edge out an opponent. With the US and France kicked out of the region, Russia and China are finding themselves competing in the same zero-sum game.

I admittedly have a western bias. I believe in upholding standards against human rights abuses and making life difficult for dictators. Granted, that is not something the West, writ large, has always done. There is truth in the argument against Western imperialism that China and Russia trot out from time to time. However, entrenching foreign backed strongmen simply trades one kind of empire for another.

About Eric

Eric Czuleger is a journalist and travel writer who has lived and worked in over 47 countries. He holds a masters degree from the University of Oxford and he is completing a National Security degree from the RAND school of public policy. He's the author of You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don’t Exist, and host of the “This Is Not a PsyOp” TikTok channel. 

📚 Liked today’s brief? Dive deeper—check out my book You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don't Exist and explore the world’s unrecognized countries.

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