Oil, Missiles, and Villagers: The Under Report

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Bottom Line Up Front

• Jihadists capture a key garrison in Burkina Faso despite Russian‑trained militias.

•  EU vows Russian gas embargo its own ship‑repair loophole keeps Arctic LNG tankers in service

•  Saudi‑led OPEC+ keeps pumping while draining funds from Russia's war chest

• Kyrgyzstan’s land‑swap mis‑compensation and live‑fire drills with Tajikistan open space for China and Russia

•  Japan places missiles while Taiwan test fires their own

Hey everyone—

Welcome to The Under Report, your weekly intelligence brief about the stories that move the world without making headlines. As always, engage with our sponsors to keep the Under Report rolling and scroll to the bottom for my Tin Foil Hat.

-Eric

P.S. Check this out to understand Taiwan's Porcupine Strategy.

1️ | Jihadists Overrun Russian-backed Positions in Africa

What happened: Al-Qaeda affiliate JNIM executed a coordinated assault on eight Russian trained security positions in Burkina Faso’s northern hub killing over 100. Then fighters overran the Special Anti‑Terrorist Unit’s camp, filming themselves on the runway while a sandstorm grounded the government's lone attack aircraft. This is the worst attack the garrison since the town’s siege began in 2022. 

Why it matters: Burkina Faso's Russian‑advised “volunteer militias” were sold as a game‑changer when Western forces were ousted. Now Russia's Africa Corps and Burkina Faso's leadership are proven to be vulnerable to islamic insurgents.

What we’re watching for: JNIM attacks farther south along the N22 (one of the Sahel's main arteries). Fortunately the group tends to celebrate wins online. Professionalized soldiers responding to the attacks and retaking the garrison town. Russia's foothold will be tested here.

2️ |  Europe Tries and Fails to Starve the Russian Bear

What happened: Despite war‑time sanctions European shipyards have serviced 14 Russian Arctic petro tankers since January. This is technically legal because the Cyprus‑flagged ships qualify under an “energy‑transport” exemption. At the same time, the European Commission unveiled the draft 17ᵗʰ sanctions package: it states no new Russian gas or liquid natural gas (LNG) contracts the day it’s signed, and a total import phase‑out by 31 Dec 2027.

Why it matters: Europe's confidence in US overwatch has been shaken. It needs to insulate itself from Russian encroachment by supporting Ukraine, but it also can't go cold turkey from Russian oil. Sanctions wars are won or lost at the margins. Keep reading to see how the Middle East plays into this.

What we’re watching for: If Europe decides to stop servicing arctic tankers. Also, can Russian oil break EU unity and cut unilateral deals to keep the energy flowing and Europe off center?

3️ |  Saudi Oil Enters the Chat

What happened: OPEC+ green‑lit a second straight 411 k barrel per day production bump for June—bringing the April‑to‑June to a massive 960 kb/d. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser told investors demand is “steady and growing,” shrugging off the price slide below $60. Brent Oil's dip is dragging Russian oil toward $40. This is well under the Kremlin’s $83 budget assumption which takes literal and figurative gas out of the Russian war machine.

Why it matters: Market forces are now under‑cutting Russian revenues faster than sanctions. This gives the EU more room to maneuver even as they try to diversify away from Russian oil while rebuilding a military apparatus.

What we’re watching for: On June 1st OPEC+ will review production, will they keep pumping or let the market catch up? Does Russia cut better deals with India, China, or even a friendly European nation?

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4️|  Kyrgyz‑Tajik Land Swap Takes Village Politics Global

What happened: A new border pact swapped 25 km² of farmland and transferred Kyrgyz village Dostuk to Tajikistan. Residents blasted the “postage‑stamp” plots offered in relocation site. Both armies staged live‑fire drills within 15 km of the new line. While this might seem like a village dispute (it kind of is) it could have huge implications for Central Asia and beyond.

Why it matters: The Ferghana Valley’s last war (2022) began with a water‑pump dispute. Compensation not ideology drives flare‑ups. If Kyrgyzstan can’t deliver land and services fast, fighting can erupt. This area could fall easily into the Russian or Chinese sphere, how it is navigated gives us a glimpse into the future of the region.

What we’re watching for: Tajik fortification of border units. An offer from Beijing or Moscow to lend a hand in monitoring the situation (while helping themselves to influence).

5️ | Missile Moves in the Indo-Pac

What happened: Japan quietly finished deploying PAC‑3 interceptor batteries and a coastal radar on Yonagun (its westernmost isle). At only 110km from Taiwan these batteries can cover the island while also operating as a tripwire that would trigger US defense. Days later, Taiwan’s Thunder 25 drill fired 33 HIMARS rockets in the island’s first live‑fire with the U.S.‑supplied system (300 km range).

Why it matters: Taiwan's defense strategy is sometimes called the porcupine. Though it may be small, anyone handling will likely regret doing so. It seems that the porcupine is gaining new quills every day. Patriots guard the strait’s sky; HIMARS can plaster PLA staging areas on China’s coast. Together they knit a deterrent lattice that raises Beijing’s invasion bill and makes any Taiwan move an immediate Japan‑U.S. fight. Yikes right?

What we’re watching for: PLA warships skirting east of Yonagun to map radar dead zones. U.S. Marine exercises in Okinawa. Taiwan scheduling a second live‑fire from its east‑coast ranges—closing the back door.

Eric’s Tinfoil Hat 🎩 

Everything is connected. 

We live in a world of finite resources and infinite appetites. When I first reported from the Middle East I realized that it was impossible to look at one square foot of the region without understanding its impact on the whole. An explosion in Beirut could come from an order in Tehran even though it was carried out by operatives from Damascus. I used to think this quantum entanglement existed only in the Middle East. The net of causality is global now.

 Maybe it always has been.

Russia and China compete in the Southern Sahara while forming uneasy partnerships in Central Asia. Europe funds Moscow's war machine while building up an army to defeat it. The price of a tank of gas topples regimes and seats dictators. Everyone is connected.

This reality be viewed two different ways: 

We are powerless to affect the forces at work around us.

Or

We have more individual agency than we can imagine. 

Both beliefs are a burden and a blessing. Which do you feel more often?

-Eric

About Eric

Eric Czuleger is a journalist and travel writer who has lived and worked in over 47 countries. He holds a masters degree from the University of Oxford and he is completing a National Security degree from the RAND school of public policy. He's the author of You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don’t Exist, and host of the “The Under Report” TikTok channel. 

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