Bottom Line Up Front

• EU proposes cutting the oil-price cap on Russian crude while inking a UK trade-and-defence reset

• Russia-Ukraine agree to a POW swap, but peace is far off

• Ethiopia edges back toward was by banning the Tigray People's Liberation Front

• Gaza truce talks stall as Israel launches ground offensive into Gaza

• Sudan’s RSF fields Chinese-supplied drones, striking key infrastructure

Hey everyone—
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— Eric

P.S.

The world can be fun and inspiring too. Check out this super cool, super short documentary about Georgian Dance.

1️ | Europe Turns the Screws on Russian Revenues

What happened: Europe is messing with the Russian war chest. At the recent G7 Summit in Banff EU leaders talked about dropping the price of seaborne oil from $60 to $50. This would squeeze another $11 billion from Moscow which is already hurting with low oil prices. Hours earlier, London and Brussels unveiled a sweeping post-Brexit “reset” that slashes customs checks, links carbon markets, and opens a €150 billion European Defense Fund credit line to the UK. These moves are connected.

Why it matters: Europe is adapting to a world where US overwatch is rolled back and Russian aggression is on the rise. This means aligning trade and defense with the UK and draining Moscow's coffers by bringing down the price of oil.

What we’re watching for: Strict enforcement on the Russian shadow fleet. Russian counter-moves in liquid natural gas contracts or even a cyber attack.

2️ | Ukraine and Russia Swap Prisoners

What happened: Russian and Ukrainian envoys in Istanbul agreed on the largest POW swap of the war (1,000 captives each) and promised to “keep talking,” yet neither budged on territory or security guarantees.

Why it matters: The exchange shows limited trust-building is possible. Momentum is critical in high level negotiations. The door is open and some coordination is happening. Maybe the sides can meet somewhere in the middle, but this stall is likely a part of the strategy to gain concessions.

What we’re watching for: Actual execution of the swap and Red Cross verification. Russia is pretty good at saying one thing and doing something totally different. We also want to watch for battlefield tempo uptick around Kharkiv and the Zaporizhzhia. Russia's leverage is its territorial gains. Ukraine's is its ability to keep fighting while Moscow suffers economically and demographically.

3️ | Ethiopia Tips Back Towards Civil War

What happened: Ethiopia’s election board deregistered the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) for failing to hold an internal congress. This violates a key clause of the 2022 Pretoria peace accord, which ended the region's most recent civil war.

Why it matters: The most recent civil war in Ethiopia kicked off due to a dispute over governance of the Tigray region. Stripping the TPLF’s legal status voids its promised role in regional self-government. The TPLF fought for a seat at the table. Now that they have laid down their arms, they're being denied.

What we’re watching for: African Union pressure on Addis Ababa to reinstate the party. TPLF street protests or militia mobilizations. We might also see Beijing or Moscow offering to “mediate,” while expanding their influence corridor from Sudan to Djibouti.

4️ | Gaza Truce Undone in New Ground Offensive

What happened: The hostage-for-cease-fire talks faltered in Doha and Israel rolled tanks into northern Gaza. The humanitarian crisis continues while private military companies move in to assist refugee outflows.

Why it matters: Each fresh offensive hardens negotiating positions, magnifies civilian tolls, and tests Washington’s ability to balance Israel’s security and regional stability. Some reports are coming through which place US-based private military companies in Northern Gaza. This is likely preparation for refugee outflows

What we’re watching for: Revived Egyptian/Qatari shuttle diplomacy. Any news that the ground operation is showing restraint or coming to a halt.

5️ | Sudan’s Proxy Drone War Takes Off

What happened: The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) used Chinese-origin drones, allegedly funneled via the UAE, to hit Port Sudan’s airport, an SAF naval base, and the Rumela hydro dam, marking their deepest strike yet on the Red Sea corridor.

Why it matters: The attacks jeopardize the last major humanitarian lifeline into Sudan and underscore how foreign materiel is tilting a civil war the world keeps ignoring. Meanwhile Ethiopia is facing internal destabilization which could metastasize.

What we’re watching for: Sudan naming suppliers officially, if they call out China or the UAE its a big deal. Conversely, Sudan could go the other way and attempt to purchase drones from Turkey or Iran. That's a big deal. If the RSF makes a move to take Sudan's Red Sea the calculus changes dramatically and this conflict goes international. It's all big deals.

Eric’s Tinfoil Hat 🎩 

Sometimes, diplomacy is war by other means.

Conflict seems to be binary . Either we are at war or we are not. That's an illusion, now more than ever. We exist within a continuum of conflict and no action is free from global impact.

Europe can haggle over the price of oil sending Moscow to find new markets. Russia can flirt with a cease fire while fighting a hot war. Sudanese paramilitaries are fighting for territorial control with Chinese weapons. While we might not hear about each of these conflicts on a daily basis they all affect one another. Moreover, they affect us.

I'm preparing to leave the US for a project that I've been working on for a little bit. I've been stateside for the better part of a year, but dynamics have changed rapidly. I'm curious to see what is different and what has stayed the same. There's a phrase that is often repeated in the world of geopolitics nothing ever happens. But then the world tilts on its axis in a couple of weeks.

I'm not certain if this is one of those times where nothing ever happens, or if its all happening at once. I think being outside the borders of the US will give me a clearer look at that.

About Eric

Eric Czuleger is a journalist and travel writer who has lived and worked in over 47 countries. He holds a masters degree from the University of Oxford and he is completing a National Security degree from the RAND school of public policy. He's the author of You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don’t Exist, and host of the “This Is Not a PsyOp” TikTok channel. 

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