Happy Friday everyone!

Thanks for subscribing. I'm experimenting with some different formats. I'm here to write about the stories and ideas that aren't typically covered and why they matter. So, welcome to the first Under Report.

Bottom Line Up Front:

1. The United States tends to drink up most of the attention in the global media, but it is by no means the center of the world

2. Gestures matter more than words, you can talk about freedom of navigation, but can you freely navigate?

3. Military alliances in the Balkans are rarely a good thing

4. Time to invest in Russian Rubles? The price is up but a strong Ruble doesn't necessarily help the Russian economy

5. Bad things compound on other bad things, natural disasters can alter national security 

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Five stories that matter

Escalation of Gang Violence in Haiti: Haiti experiencing instability is nothing new, but it seems that the efforts of Kenyan peacekeepers are failing. A surge in gang-related violence has led to mass protests in Port-au-Prince. On April 2, thousands demanded the resignation of government coalition leader Alix Didier Fils-Aimé. Remember, it's all gang violence until someone declares themself leader and has the capabilities to enforce their own mandate. 

Chinese Naval Exercises in the Tasman Sea: In the next round of 'not touching can't get mad,’ China conducted significant naval exercises in the Tasman Sea, a move perceived as a response to freedom of navigation operations by Australia and New Zealand in the South China Sea. Basically, Western Powers routinely run warships around the South Pacific as a show of power projection and then China does it right back. The reason we care is because there has been a notable uptick in frequency and a US push towards retrenchment in the Indo Pacific. Nobody is touching yet, but people could get mad.

Formation of a New Military Alliance in the Balkans: It's rarely a good sign when military agreements are made in the Balkans. Albania, Croatia, and Kosovo signed a trilateral military alliance declaration in Tirana. It's hard to imagine a move more antagonistic to Serbia which has been in rough shape, as protests have rocked the country for months. Unsurprisingly Belgrade has criticized the move, viewing it as a threat to regional stability. We're going to keep watching for any escalation. Serbia's internal instability makes retaliation difficult, but nationalistic fervor goes a long way to bring a divided country together.

Myanmar Earthquake Exacerbates Humanitarian Crisis: A series of powerful earthquakes struck central Myanmar on March 28, causing extensive damage. Meanwhile there is a civil war raging through the country. This natural disaster has compounded the existing humanitarian crisis in the region, which has been largely overlooked by international media. It's difficult to get information out or aid into Myanmar and so this is a case of bad things compounding on one another​. We'll continue monitoring for signs that the disaster has moved the needle to one side of the conflict.

Surge in Russia's Ruble Amid Global Tensions: Since President Donald Trump's return to office, the Russian ruble has experienced a significant surge. While this might seem positive, it poses challenges for Russia's state budget, particularly concerning export competitiveness and fiscal planning. Essentially, a low Ruble boosts exports and the Russian economy at the same time. This is critical for a country financed mostly by fossil fuels. However, a stronger ruble also translates to a better bargaining position in ending the Russo-Ukraine war. Probably best to keep monitoring for an uptick in Russian exports or capital inflows into the Russian economy. All of that will tell us how Russia will emerge after the war.

Parting shot
My mentor in geopolitics told me that a newspaper is worth about a dollar, but if you know what that newspaper is going to say a day in the future, the information is priceless. Since we don't have a crystal ball we'll keep looking at the newspapers of today to determine the future.

Peace,

Eric